On Wednesday, October 21, White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in St. Petersburg, where, according to Russian media, his plane landed at Pulkovo Airport in the morning. The American envoy was met by Kirill Dmitriev, a special representative of Vladimir Putin. The purpose of the visit is a face-to-face meeting with the Russian leader, during which Witkoff will present an updated US proposal to end the war in Ukraine. Jared Kushner, son-in-law and senior advisor to US President Donald Trump, will join the talks via video conference, emphasizing the high level of the US administration's involvement in the process.
The 'Diesel Deal' as a Diplomatic Lever
According to a US administration official, Washington expects Moscow to be more willing to compromise following a series of recent White House decisions. Chief among these is the lifting of sanctions related to the sale of Russian diesel fuel, as well as other measures that were received positively in Russia. The logic of the American side is that economic concessions should "reward" the Kremlin with a willingness to compromise on a settlement in Ukraine and induce Vladimir Putin to compromise on ending the conflict.
Outcome Uncertainty
At the same time, Washington acknowledges that it remains unknown whether these steps will actually influence the Russian leader's position on ending the war. Thus, the presentation of the updated proposal is perceived as an attempt to create conditions for moving forward rather than as a guarantee of a breakthrough. The outcome of Witkoff's meeting with Putin and the Kremlin's reaction to the lifted restrictions will serve as the main indicator of how effective Washington's chosen lever has proven to be.
Oslo as a Prelude to Talks with Russia
Witkoff's trip to Russia was preceded by negotiations in Oslo, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US representatives and European partners. Leaders from Norway and Finland joined the discussions, alongside representatives from France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, the European Union, and NATO. The main topic was the preparation of a joint proposal for a framework agreement to end the war: according to the US official, the Ukrainian side presented new ideas, which were discussed in detail during the meetings. Following the October 20 meeting, Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated that the parties had developed ideas for a peaceful settlement to be presented to Russia.
From the Working Level to Trilateral Negotiations
The US official reported significant progress and alignment at the working level regarding next steps, while emphasizing that this does not yet mean agreement on all terms of a future agreement. Washington hopes that the new proposal will pave the way for direct trilateral negotiations involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia, and subsequently to a broader international dialogue. Thus, Witkoff's visit to St. Petersburg serves as a connecting link between the European-Ukrainian preparations in Oslo and potential direct contacts with Moscow.
