During a meeting with journalists, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed Kyiv's assessment of Russia's plans to ramp up the production of ballistic missiles. According to him, Moscow is aiming for a pace of around 100 ballistic missiles per month, which could amount to up to 1,300 such munitions per year. The head of state emphasized that the figure he cited is the “most frightening” and reflects the upper limit of the volume that, according to the Ukrainian side's assessment, the Russian defense industry is targeting.
Moscow's plans for ballistic missile production
Zelensky explained that Ukraine understands what level of production Russia is aiming for “by the end of winter.” According to him, Moscow's target figure is approximately 100 ballistic missiles per month. At the same time, the president stated outright that Russia has not yet reached such a production rate: the cited 1,300 missiles per year represent a target benchmark, not a recorded current result. That is precisely why, in his words, one of Kyiv's main tasks is to prevent a sharp increase in the production of these munitions on Russian territory.
Current rates and intelligence data
The context of the president's statements is supplemented by data from the Main Directorate of Intelligence, according to which Russia's main production plans are being fulfilled at 110–120%, and for certain types of weapons the figures are significantly above plan. In particular, in July, according to available information, 87 Kh-101 missiles were produced against a plan of 72, 29 “Kalibr” missiles against a plan of 26, and 65 9M723 ballistic missiles for “Iskander” systems against a plan of 60. These figures confirm a sustained trend of overfulfilling production targets, which, by Zelensky's logic, is what the Ukrainian side is reacting to.
Contradictory data
The statements by the parties and the intelligence assessments contain a number of inconsistencies that are important to distinguish. On the one hand, Zelensky characterizes 1,300 missiles per year as the upper limit (“up to 1,300,” “the most frightening figure”) and simultaneously emphasizes that Russia “does not yet have such a production rate.” On the other hand, GUR data on overfulfilling plans by 110–120% indicates that actual output already exceeds target figures for a number of items. Thus, there is a gap between the target benchmark (100 per month), the current actual rate, and the intelligence assessment of plan overfulfillment: neither side provides a single verified figure for the actual monthly output of ballistic missiles, and 1,300 per year remains a ceiling estimate rather than a confirmed statistical indicator.
Ukraine's countermeasures and the role of air defense
According to Zelensky, Ukraine is deliberately working to weaken the Russian military industry, including strikes on military targets and other measures aimed at reducing Russia's capabilities. He noted that Kyiv is carrying out “separate complex operations” that have already begun to yield first results, and that the task is not to allow Russia to carry out massive missile attacks. The president also explained Moscow's motivation: Russia is ramping up precisely ballistic missiles because other types — primarily cruise missiles — have been learned to be shot down more effectively by Ukrainian air defense. To counter cruise missiles, he said, various air defense systems are used, including IRIS-T and Hawk, as well as combat aviation.
Context: escalation of strikes and North Korean missiles
The statements about the growth in ballistic missile production come at a time when Russia continues active missile strikes on Ukrainian territory, including Kyiv and the Kyiv region, and is also using North Korean KN-23 missiles in its attacks, which, according to Zelensky's assessment, increases pressure on air defense systems. The combination of these factors explains why Kyiv views curbing the growth in ballistic missile production in Russia as a priority direction, and the estimate of 1,300 missiles per year as a key threat indicator monitored by Ukrainian intelligence and military structures.
