Fuel Shock and the Currency Market: Why August 2026 Will Be a Test for the Hryvnia
📉 Fuel Shock and the Currency Market: Why August 2026 Will Be a Test for the Hryvnia 🇺🇦
💡 The main risks for the dollar and euro exchange rates are linked to instability in the fuel market. Importers are actively buying currency to avoid risks, which increases demand in the interbank market.
🛡️ The NBU maintains control over the situation thanks to interventions totaling $800–900 million. The "managed flexibility" regime allows for smoothing out exchange rate fluctuations.
🔥 Rising fuel prices could accelerate inflation, but seasonal price suppression on food products partially offsets this risk.
📊 Experts do not expect sharp exchange rate changes, although information waves may cause temporary panic.
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