Amidst the war and the need to prepare for the heating season, Ukraine is discussing the possibility of entering the external market. Experts believe that the controlled export of a portion of Ukrainian gas could become a key factor in the development of the industry, providing private players with funds for modernization and drilling new wells.
Balance Between Profit and Security
Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre, stated that the sale of gas abroad must be strictly regulated. The state must allow exports only in volumes that do not create risks for the country's winter preparation.
Free or unlimited export is excluded under current conditions. The priority remains filling underground storage facilities and guaranteeing a stable autumn-winter period. However, according to the expert, the mechanism proposed by the government is generally acceptable, provided it takes into account energy security issues.
Economic Incentive for Private Companies
The main problem for private companies right now is the decline in domestic demand, which makes it difficult to sell the extracted resource. Omelchenko notes that the possibility of export could solve this problem, bringing additional funds to the industry.
"If they sold more gas, exported it, if there was controlled export, they could earn more and invest more in increasing production and increasing natural gas reserves," the expert emphasized.
Gradually opening the market can improve the investment climate, reduce the burden on "Naftogaz" and the state budget, while simultaneously supporting private production. The government's task is to balance the pros and cons to stimulate business without harming security.
Current Indicators and Goals
The situation with gas accumulation in the country looks positive. As of the second half of July, about 13 billion cubic meters of gas had been accumulated in underground storage facilities. This is 40% more than in the same period last year. The main reason for the increase in reserves was not so much a refusal to consume, but an increase in production volumes.
The expert considers the government's target of 14.6 billion cubic meters quite realistic to achieve. According to forecasts, by the beginning of November, Ukraine may accumulate more than 15 billion cubic meters of gas, which, according to the Cabinet of Ministers' estimates, should be enough for a comfortable heating season.
History of Restrictions
It is important to note that a complete ban on the export of natural gas of Ukrainian origin was introduced by the Cabinet of Ministers at the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Now, the possibility of returning to partial exports is being discussed, but only as a limited and fully state-controlled mechanism. Previously, this position was voiced by Artem Petrenko, Director of the Association of Gas Producers of Ukraine.
