Ukraine is considering the possibility of a controlled export of part of its own natural gas as a tool to restore the investment attractiveness of the gas production sector. This was stated by Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of Energy and Infrastructure Programs at the Razumkov Centre, on Hromadske Radio, noting that additional revenue from sales abroad would allow production companies to channel funds into drilling new wells and modernizing infrastructure, while the state would reduce its dependence on costly imports. At the same time, the expert emphasized a fundamental condition: export is permissible only if the country's domestic gas balance is in equilibrium and resources are sufficient to get through the heating season.
Strict Link to the Winter Balance
Omelchenko stressed that the decision to open up export must remain strictly tied to the dynamics of the gas balance ahead of the heating period. "This needs to be considered, but only with very strict monitoring of what the balance will be, so that this balance is not disrupted this winter," the expert emphasized. According to him, taxes from the work of Ukrainian producers in the event of export would remain in Ukraine, which further strengthens the fiscal effect for the budget. Thus, export is positioned not as an end in itself, but as a tool that works only when there is a surplus of domestic resources.
Losses of Private Production Over Four Years
The expert links the systemic decline in private gas production to the closure of the gas market after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. According to Omelchenko's estimate, over this period Ukraine has received about six billion cubic meters of gas less, as private companies lost the economic incentives to invest in new production. "Private companies lost the point of producing and investing in their own production, and production by private companies began to decline significantly," he explained. The Cabinet of Ministers introduced zero quotas for the export of Ukrainian-origin natural gas at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, which effectively froze the export channel for domestic raw materials.
Mechanism: 15% of Production, Exchange Trading and Licenses
Recently, a draft resolution appeared in the government providing for a controlled mechanism for opening up export. According to the document, the monthly export limit must not exceed 15% of the actual production of the previous month. Gas is proposed to be sold exclusively through specialized exchange trading, and only approved companies will be able to export after obtaining the corresponding license. This approach, as designed by the regulator, should ensure the transparency of transactions, prevent the export of a strategic resource at undervalued prices, and provide the industry with a predictable but limited sales channel.
Positions of the Industry and Parliament
Artem Petrenko, Director of the Association of Gas Production Companies of Ukraine, expressed confidence that controlled export could become an effective tool for supporting gas production within the country, returning to companies an economic model in which revenue from sales covers the costs of drilling and maintaining wells. Previously, Serhiy Hnorniak, head of the Verkhovna Rada subcommittee on energy conservation and energy efficiency, also stated that Ukraine could consider partial export of privately produced gas, but the decision must take into account the interests of the domestic market and the need of companies to maintain a sustainable production economy. Thus, both in the expert and industry communities, a consensus is forming around the idea of limited, regulated export as a condition for restarting the investment cycle in gas production.
