Against the backdrop of ongoing systematic Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the question of the permissibility of a controlled export of part of the country's own gas has once again come to the forefront. Mikhail Svishcho, a gas-sector expert at the analytics firm ExPro, told the publication NV Business, as cited by RBC-Ukraine, that such a mechanism could provide producing companies with additional funds to restore damaged facilities and make new investments in extraction. In his assessment, the key advantage is the ability to sell part of the domestic gas at higher European prices and obtain foreign-currency revenue, which the industry badly needs under wartime conditions.
Foreign-Currency Revenue and Infrastructure Restoration
"Part of the foreign-currency income from exports could be directed by companies toward restoring extraction facilities that are under systematic Russian strikes," NV quotes Svishcho as saying. At present, Ukraine's extraction sector operates under conditions of a chronic investment deficit: a significant portion of the infrastructure is damaged, and without external financing, restoration proceeds extremely slowly. According to the analyst's logic, foreign-currency inflows from exports could become the very "oxygen" that allows not only to repair what has been destroyed but also to lay the foundation for increasing extraction in the medium term. This position is also supported by Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy Chernykh, as well as other industry players who have previously advocated lifting the full export ban on the condition that control remains on the state's side.
Reviving the Isolated Domestic Market
A second significant effect pointed out by Svishcho is the revival of the domestic gas market, which to date is largely isolated. Exports are fully banned, and imports are virtually absent due to the substantial gap between Ukrainian and European prices: buying gas from abroad when domestic prices are significantly lower than European ones is economically unfeasible. As a result, the domestic market operates in a closed loop, which limits competition and reduces incentives for optimization. According to the analyst's assessment, introducing controlled exports would create a "bridge" between the domestic and European markets, help form a more realistic price dynamic, and restore elements of market equilibrium to the system.
Naftogaz's Strategy: Sell Now, Buy Cheaper
A separate aspect emphasized by Svishcho concerns Naftogaz's procurement tactics. The company could sell gas now, while European prices remain high, and at the same time contract imports for the first quarter of 2027 at a lower price. The difference between the selling price and the future import price could partially offset the logistical costs associated with reverse flow and storage. Thus, controlled exports become not just a source of currency but an element of a financial strategy that allows optimizing Naftogaz's balance over the next two to three quarters.
Scale: 250–260 Million Cubic Meters per Month
Previously, the ExPro publication estimated that, given current extraction volumes, potential exports could amount to around 250–260 million cubic meters of gas per month. For context: this is only a few days of Ukraine's winter consumption. Thus, even with full use of the export potential, the risk of a shortage during the heating season is minimal. The mechanism also provides for the possibility of promptly halting exports in the event of a gas shortage, a threat to energy security, or risks to getting through the heating season. This is, in essence, an "emergency switch" that makes exports reversible and subordinate to the interests of domestic security.
Positions of Experts and Industry Players
Such assessments are not isolated. Earlier, in an interview with Obozrevatel, Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy Chernykh and other subject-matter experts pointed out that restricting exports (that is, dosing them rather than a full ban) would support extraction and help prepare for winter. Ukrtransgaz CEO Serhiy Makohon and other market participants also emphasized that, with a properly designed mechanism, controlled exports would more likely strengthen Ukraine's energy security rather than weaken it. The key condition remains the transparency of the rules: who decides to halt exports, based on what triggers, and at what speed. It is precisely this "important nuance," as experts noted in previous comments, that determines whether the mechanism will work as a development tool or turn into a source of additional risks.
