A sustained surplus has formed in the commercial segment of Ukraine's gas market, driven by a sharp decline in consumption among large industrial consumers. This was stated by Mykhailo Svyshcho, an expert in the gas division of the analytics firm ExPro, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. According to his data, average natural gas consumption over the summer period of 2026 was 20% lower than a year earlier, with the decline reaching 23% in August — the maximum drop for the entire reporting year.

Causes of the Surplus: Strikes on Industry and Port Infrastructure

Svyshcho explained that the resource surplus arose as a result of targeted strikes on major industrial gas consumers and port infrastructure. The mass reduction in processing and production volumes meant that extraction could not fully compensate for the drop in demand. 'Thanks to the strikes on large industrial consumers and on port infrastructure, a resource surplus has emerged in the commercial segment, meaning we have a certain excess of gas because consumption by large consumers has declined,' the ExPro analyst explained. Thus, the gas surplus is not the result of increased extraction but reflects a structural shift in the 'extraction — consumption' balance.

Exports Never Launched: The Surplus Remained Inside the Market

The resulting gas excess became one of the key subjects of discussion on the controlled opening of exports. However, according to Svyshcho, the mechanism has not been launched, and the resource surplus still remains within the Ukrainian market. 'Exports have not been opened, so our consumption remains reduced and, accordingly, we have this certain resource surplus,' the analyst noted. The reminder that the Cabinet of Ministers introduced zero quotas on exports of Ukrainian-origin natural gas at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 underscores that the ban on exporting the resource has been in force for over four years.

Draft Resolution: 15% of Extraction and Exchange Trading

Recently, a draft government resolution entered the public domain, providing for a controlled mechanism for opening exports. According to the document, the monthly export limit must not exceed 15% of the actual extraction of the previous month. Gas is to be sold exclusively through specialized exchange trading, and only approved companies holding the corresponding license will be able to export it. Thus, the state intends to maintain strict control over the volumes and channels of resource exports.

Expert Assessments: From One-Off Sales to a Flexible Model

Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre, previously stated that Ukraine should review the current export ban on gas and move to a model in which the resource surplus can be sold abroad, while imports can be made in case of a deficit. In his logic, a flexible two-way model will help stabilize the domestic market and provide extraction companies with additional financial flows. ExPro analysts, in turn, point out that controlled exports of surplus gas can provide extraction companies with funds for recovery after attacks and for infrastructure modernization.

Contradictory Data

No significant discrepancies in figures or dates were found in the provided sources: all refer to the same ExPro estimates (20% over the summer, 23% in August) and to the same draft resolution with a 15% limit. However, it should be noted that the draft resolution has not yet been adopted or entered into force, and the experts' statements are analytical rather than regulatory in nature. In addition, the life.ru source (ID 4) touches on a related but different topic — the sharp drop in gas imports due to European prices — which neither contradicts nor confirms the data on the domestic surplus. Thus, the factual picture is confirmed by expert assessments, but the regulatory status of the export mechanism remains at the stage of draft development.