As of autumn 2026, the Ukrainian gas market has effectively become a closed system, disconnected from the European network. Export flows have been shut down, imports are virtually nonexistent, and the domestic market is shaped solely by local supply and demand pressures. This was stated by Mykhailo Svyshcho, a gas-sector expert at the analytics firm ExPro, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine. In his words, the Ukrainian market is "boiling in its own pot," which is giving rise to an increasingly noticeable price gap with the European hub.
European market: highest level since winter 2022
According to the figures cited by Svyshcho, by 9 September 2026 the futures price of gas on the European hub market had exceeded €78 per megawatt-hour. This is the highest level since December 2022, when, following the shutdown of supplies via the Nord Stream, prices on TTF and Gate 8 reached peak values. Thus, almost four years after the start of the full-scale conflict, the European gas market is once again going through a phase of price stress, fueled by seasonal growth in heating demand and uncertainty over transit routes.
Ukrainian market: historic price low
At the opposite pole is the Ukrainian market, where gas, by contrast, continues to fall in price. Svyshcho noted that prices have dropped below UAH 22,000 per 1,000 cubic meters — the lowest value in over a year. The analyst links this to weak industrial demand and a surplus of the resource in the commercial segment. With the export channel closed, surplus gas cannot be sold beyond the country's borders, which intensifies downward pressure on prices. In effect, Ukrainian producers and commercial players are forced to compete for limited domestic demand, with no ability to redirect surpluses to external markets.
Causes of isolation and its consequences
The isolation of the Ukrainian gas market from the European one has several causes. The closure of exports deprives domestic gas producers of an additional sales channel that, under normal conditions, would have allowed them to balance the domestic market and maintain a price floor for producers. At the same time, near-zero imports mean that Ukraine does not participate in forming the European price basket and does not benefit from volatility on TTF. As a result, a "double trap" emerges: when European prices rise, Ukrainian gas does not increase proportionally, and when domestic demand falls, prices drop without the support of external demand. For gas-producing companies, this means shrinking margins and reduced investment attractiveness of new wells.
Winter balance: 14.6 billion cubic meters in storage
According to the forecast balance of natural gas supply and distribution for the 2026/2027 heating season, approved by the Ministry of Energy, Ukraine plans to accumulate 14.6 billion cubic meters of gas in underground storage facilities by winter. This volume substantially exceeds the country's actual needs during the heating period and confirms the thesis of a significant resource surplus. It is precisely this surplus, with no outlet for export, that is the main factor keeping domestic prices at a historically low level. Without the ability to sell surpluses abroad, storage facilities effectively serve as a "buffer" in which gas accumulates but does not generate revenue for the industry.
Controlled export as a tool to support production
Previously, Artiom Petrenko, director of the Association of Gas-Producing Companies of Ukraine, pointed out that controlled gas exports could become an effective tool for supporting domestic gas production. By his logic, even limited volumes of export deliveries would help create a price "floor" for the domestic market, stimulating investment in exploration and drilling. In a situation where European prices exceed €78 per megawatt-hour while Ukrainian prices fall below UAH 22,000 per thousand cubic meters, the economic rationale for an export channel becomes obvious: the price difference creates significant potential for profitable realization of surpluses. However, at present no decision has been made to resume exports, and the market continues to operate in an isolated mode.
