The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, according to Politico, is considering a 90-day ban on diesel fuel exports. The goal of the measure is to curb the sharp rise in fuel prices within the country. Reports indicate that an announcement of the ban could come as early as the end of the week, however, the outlet's sources emphasize that a final decision has not yet been made and could still change. As of the time of publication, there is no final decision on restricting diesel exports.
What Is Happening in the White House
According to Politico, Chris Wright, identified in the outlet's materials as an energy advisor/secretary, held a series of phone calls the day before with the heads of energy companies and informed them that a 90-day ban is likely to be introduced in the coming days. In parallel, the administration is working out an alternative to a hard ban: in Wright's words, a "voluntary" plan may emerge, providing for the withdrawal of a portion of diesel from the global market. Thus, the White House has at least two scenarios — a full temporary ban and a softer voluntary scheme.
Price Pressure and the Political Backdrop
The initiative comes against the backdrop of sharply rising fuel prices. According to AAA data, on Wednesday the average price of a gallon of diesel in the U.S. stood at $6.52 — 91 cents more than a month earlier and $2.83 higher than a year ago. The price increase, sources assess, was influenced in part by the Trump administration's war with Iran and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. High energy prices have become a sensitive issue for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections: party representatives from agricultural states, where expensive fuel hits the agricultural sector, have demanded that the administration take steps to lower fuel prices.
Views Within the Administration and the Industry
The potential ban has become a subject of debate not only among politicians but also within the administration itself. According to Politico, a full ban has been opposed by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. "Such a blunt measure as a ban on diesel fuel exports will definitely not work," Wright stated. In his words, American refineries simultaneously produce diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel: if diesel exports are suspended, companies may lack storage space, which would force them to cut back on oil processing. Industry representatives warn that the ban would only have a short-term effect: fuel intended for Europe and Asia would temporarily remain on the domestic market and could lower prices in certain regions, but subsequently plants may cut production due to the loss of a major export market, which would raise the price not only of diesel but also of gasoline and aviation fuel.
Contradictory Data
The materials contain notable inconsistencies that must be reflected honestly. On the one hand, Politico reports that Trump could announce a 90-day ban as early as the end of the week and that Wright informed companies of a "likely" introduction of the measure. On the other hand, the same Wright, along with Bessent and Burgum, is publicly opposing a full ban as a "blunt measure," while the administration is simultaneously working out a "voluntary" plan. In other words, the White House is simultaneously sending signals of an imminent hard decision and arguments in favor of a soft alternative, and the ban itself has not yet been approved. The assessments of the effect also differ: proponents of the measure see it as a way to quickly lower domestic prices, while the industry and part of the cabinet warn of risks to production and to gasoline and aviation fuel prices in the medium term.
Context: Russia and Ukraine
The topic of diesel exports is relevant beyond the U.S. as well. Russia has already twice extended restrictions on diesel fuel exports following strikes on oil refineries: the ban was initially set to last several weeks, then it was extended until the end of August, and afterwards until the end of September. Now Moscow is discussing a new extension of the restrictions for at least another month; the reasons remain problems with oil processing and the aftermath of strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. In Ukraine, which relies heavily on imported fuel, gasoline and diesel supplies continue, and the National Antimonopoly Commission (NAK) stated that there are no grounds for panic buying.
