"The World We Know Is Over": COP31 in Turkey Urged to Impose Windfall Tax on Oil and Gas Giants

On the third, “leaders'” day of the COP31 climate summit, hosted in Turkey with Australia as co-organizer, some of the harshest warnings about the state of the planet in the history of climate negotiations were voiced. Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine, speaking before dozens of heads of state, stated that failing to deliver an “overwhelming response” to the climate crisis means that “the world we know is over.” Her words became the central motif of the day, where passionate speeches by leaders alternated with displays of Turkish music and dancing.

“Time to Wake Up”: Evidence of Coral Bleaching

Heine, one of the few Pacific island leaders to deliver an emotional speech, described the consequences of breaching the 1.5°C Paris temperature threshold: waves “eating” away at shores and floods destroying towns, schools, and hospitals. As visual proof, she recounted how in July she saw vibrant, “lush” corals underwater on her home island, which just a few months later turned white from bleaching. “It’s time to wake up,” Heine said. “Our response to the threat of overshoot must be overwhelming, or the world we know is over.”

“Heat Debt”: Barbados Names the Numbers of Overshoot

Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley accused governments of “not doing enough” to cut emissions since the Paris Agreement. According to UN data she cited, even if all pledges are met, the world is heading toward 2.6°C of warming, and under current policies, 2.8°C. “Overshoot is not a new target. It is a debt, a heat debt borrowed against our children’s future. And it must be paid back,” Mottley stated.

Guterres Calls to “Punish Polluters” with Windfall Tax

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in one of his final addresses in the role before stepping down next month, accused the “deceitful” fossil fuel industry and nations that “continue to expand fossil fuel production while claiming commitment to 1.5°C.” He stated that oil and gas companies had “distorted science and delayed action,” and called for a windfall tax on the profits they reaped thanks to the Iran War. “Fossil fuels must go the way of the dinosaurs… Dinosaurs didn’t have a lobby — fossil fuels do,” Guterres said, urging governments to “tax these windfall profits and use them to help vulnerable nations.”

Summit Contrast: Calls for Action and New Oil Fields

The leaders' speeches were accompanied by a striking contrast. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called to make COP31 a “turning point” and demanded action rather than promises, yet on Monday, outside the conference hall, he noted the opening of two new oil fields with an estimated in-situ potential of 135 million barrels. Heine, without naming specific producers, responded directly: “Opening new fossil fuel resources is not a reason for celebration, but a reason for fear.” Australian Prime Minister Albanese called the conference a “historic moment,” but faced criticism for failing to mention fossil fuels in his speech, despite Australia being one of the world's largest exporters of coal and liquefied gas.

Who Came and Who Snubbed COP31

According to UN figures, 91 national leaders attended the summit, but the turnout was relatively “sparse”: the US (Donald Trump) and China (Xi Jinping) did not attend. Notably, a number of other leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, skipped COP31 to instead travel to Ireland for an artificial intelligence conference. As of the opening of the leaders' day, nearly every country at COP31 is lagging behind in emission reductions, and funding for the most vulnerable nations suffering from extreme heat, floods, and fires remains insufficient.