As of September 26, 2026, experts in the Ukrainian currency market are preparing for another stage of hryvnia exchange rate adjustments. According to the forecast of Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets Department at Globus Bank, the dollar is expected to remain in the 44.5–45 hryvnia corridor in the cash market in early October, while the European currency may fluctuate in the 51–52.5 hryvnia range.
External Influence Factors
A key driver of change in October will be not only internal economic policy but also global geopolitical processes. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the associated rise in oil prices are exerting direct pressure on currency pairs. The dollar traditionally acts as a "safe haven" for investors during periods of uncertainty, which supports its international value. At the same time, the euro shows greater vulnerability to energy shocks, which is reflected in its dynamics within Ukraine.
Currency Interdependence
Lesovoy points out that the euro rate in Ukraine is formed as a derivative of the dollar-to-hryvnia rate and the euro/dollar cross-rate on the global market. Thus, even with a stable hryvnia against the dollar, the cost of the euro can change significantly. Europe, as a major importer of energy resources, is more susceptible to inflationary pressure from rising oil prices, which slows economic growth in the Eurozone and affects the attractiveness of the European currency.
Regulatory Actions and Market Behavior
The National Bank of Ukraine continues its policy of flexible exchange rate formation, compensating for currency shortages through interventions of up to $1 billion per week. This helps maintain market equilibrium and avoid panic. Consumer behavior has transformed over the past two years: the public is less prone to emotional reactions to military news, preferring hryvnia deposits and bonds as a means of capital preservation.
Contradictory Data
There are discussions regarding the impact of energy carriers on the exchange rate. While analysts point to a direct link between oil prices and currency demand from importers, some experts note a time lag of 2–3 weeks before global fuel prices begin to noticeably affect currency costs in Ukrainian exchange offices due to logistics and inventory replenishment specifics.
