On Thursday, September 24, an active cyclone moving from the south will continue to cross Ukrainian territory. According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, it will bring moderate precipitation to most regions of the country, with the exception of the western oblasts. In some areas, heavy rain is expected, locally accompanied by thunderstorm activity. The weather will be accompanied by westerly and south-westerly air flows with an average speed of 7–12 m/s, while on the Left Bank wind gusts may reach 15–20 m/s. It is precisely due to the combination of heavy precipitation and strong wind that UHMC specialists have declared a Level I (yellow) hazard.
Nighttime down to +6°C: Thursday's temperature background
Nighttime temperatures on Thursday, September 24, are forecast by UHMC to average +6…+11°C. During the day, thermometer readings will not rise significantly above this range, making the day noticeably cool. Meteorologists warn that the combination of heavy rain and gusty wind may complicate traffic, disrupt the work of utility services and create risks for people in open areas. Residents and visitors to the country are advised to be careful when moving around and, where possible, to limit unnecessary outings during peak precipitation hours.
Kyiv and the region under special observation
A separate UHMC warning applies to Kyiv and the Kyiv region: throughout September 24, heavy rain is expected in the capital and its surroundings, with thunderstorms in places across the region. Weather conditions may lead to traffic complications, flooding of low-lying areas and local disruptions to the city's infrastructure. Over the following 24 hours, on September 25 and 26, daytime temperatures in Kyiv will stabilize at around +17°C, while nighttime readings will rise to +10…+11°C, signalling a gradual exit from the cool period.
After the cyclone — improvement: what September 25–26 holds
According to the three-day forecast by UHMC experts, the synoptic situation in Ukraine will begin to improve noticeably from Friday, September 25. Brief rain, in places, will remain only in the western part of the country. On Saturday, September 26, temperatures may rise by 2–4°C in a number of regions. Thus, the cool and rainy Thursday will be the last day of the cyclone's active influence, while the weekend promises to be calmer and warmer.
Contradictory data
Publications by various outlets show differences in emphasis when describing the current weather. RBC-Ukraine and UHMC data stress that after the cyclone passes (September 25–26) temperatures will rise by 2–4°C, meaning warming is ahead. At the same time, TSN, in the headline of its publication, claims an "even stronger cooling" allegedly brought by the cyclone, and Obozrevatel also emphasizes that "the cyclone will bring cooling." The difference in framing is explained by the fact that TSN and Obozrevatel are capturing the current phase — the passage of the cold front itself and the temperature drop relative to the previous day — whereas the main text of RBC-Ukraine describes the dynamics several days ahead. Both statements are correct within their respective time frames: on Thursday the weather is indeed cool and rainy, while a slight warming is expected by the weekend. Nevertheless, TSN's phrasing of "an even stronger cooling" may give the reader the impression that warming will not occur, which does not match the UHMC forecast for September 26.
Context: Arctic air and the first snow in the Carpathians
The current cyclonic activity is occurring against the backdrop of a recent intrusion of cold Arctic air from the north-west, which earlier led to the first snowfall in the Carpathians and a temperature drop to −2°C in the high mountains. This episode was one of the earliest for the start of autumn in Ukraine's mountainous regions. In parallel, UHMC reminded that home thermometers may have errors and explained the methodology for accurately measuring air temperature used in official observations.
