Dollar at 45–45.7 UAH, Euro at 50–52 UAH: Globus Bank Banker Forecasts Rates for November 16–22

In the Ukrainian foreign exchange market, moderate dynamics for major currencies are expected from November 16 to November 22, 2026. According to Taras Lisovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, the US dollar will trade in the range of 45–45.7 UAH, while the euro will fluctuate between 50–52 UAH. The banker noted that these ranges apply to both the interbank and cash market segments. Daily fluctuations on the interbank market will amount to 0.05–0.15 UAH, in commercial banks to 0.1–0.2 UAH, and at exchange offices to 0.3 UAH. Average weekly deviations from starting values will not exceed 1–1.5%.

Psychological Factor and Risk of Panic Demand

Lisovyi emphasizes that a key feature of the current situation is the layering of economic prerequisites onto the population's psychological reaction caused by military uncertainty. Missile and drone attacks damage businesses and infrastructure, increasing public anxiety. Under such conditions, even a minor increase in the dollar exchange rate can be perceived as a signal of massive devaluation, provoking panic demand for foreign currency. Some exchange offices, counting on the public's willingness to buy, may temporarily overstate their selling rates, and psychological demand at such moments can exceed the real needs of the market.

National Bank Tools and Managed Flexibility

At the same time, the banker notes that short-term rate deviations should not be equated with sustainable growth in the cost of foreign currency. On the interbank market, the National Bank has tools to compensate for excessive demand, and the current regime of managed flexibility allows for maintaining relative exchange rate equilibrium. Based on Lisovyi's assessment, the combination of fundamental factors does not create prerequisites for the dollar to sharply break out of the forecasted boundaries within the coming week.

Spreads Between Market Segments

The forecast for spreads between buying and selling rates varies by segment. On the interbank market, the gap will be up to 0.15 UAH for the dollar and up to 0.2 UAH for the euro. In commercial banks, it is 0.5–0.6 UAH for the dollar and 0.8–1 UAH for the euro. At exchange offices, a gap of 0.6–1 UAH for the dollar and 1–1.3 UAH for the euro is expected. The difference between buying rates in different cash market institutions will reach 0.2–0.3 UAH for the dollar and 0.3–0.5 UAH for the euro in banks, and 0.3–0.5 UAH and 0.5–0.7 UAH respectively in exchange offices. The average gap between the interbank and cash markets is estimated at 0.1–0.15 UAH.

Recommendations for Citizens

Taras Lisovyi advises Ukrainians to avoid hasty foreign exchange transactions, especially when the spread between buying and selling rates widens significantly. Under certain circumstances, this gap can reach 1–1.5 UAH, which significantly reduces the expediency of purchasing currency. The banker recommends a balanced approach to financial decisions and not reacting to every short-term rate fluctuation, as the market will operate in conditions of military uncertainty next week, but without sufficient grounds for the dollar to sharply exit the forecasted corridors.

Attention: this material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments involve risk, including the possibility of total loss of capital. Before making investment decisions, it is recommended to consult with a licensed financial advisor.