The Ukrainian currency market at the end of July shows signs of relative stability. According to expert forecasts, the US dollar exchange rate is unlikely to exceed the 45 hryvnia mark. Despite the ongoing risks associated with military actions, the financial system demonstrates the ability to withstand external challenges without panic fluctuations.
Forecast for the end of July
Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, clarified the expected parameters of currency movements in a comment to RBC-Ukraine. In the period from July 20 to 26, he believes that the official and cash dollar rates will fluctuate in the range of 44.5–45 hryvnia. The euro, in turn, is expected to be in the corridor of 50.5–52.5 hryvnia.
The expert emphasizes that this is not about fixed prices, but about a forecasted range in which the market can function without disrupting the overall balance. Average weekly fluctuations in the exchange rate should not exceed 1–1.5%, while daily changes on the interbank market will be limited to 15 kopecks.
Market situation: absence of panic
An important indicator of calmness has been the equalization of rates on the interbank and cash markets. The previously existing difference between them has practically disappeared, indicating the absence of panic demand and panic sentiments among the population.
"Exchange offices do not demonstrate a significant deviation from bank rates, and banks are not forced to sharply change prices due to demand pressure," Lesovoy explained. This indicates that citizens are not rushing to buy foreign currency, and businesses are behaving prudently.
Role of the National Bank and risk factors
The National Bank of Ukraine continues to play the role of an "arbitrator" in the currency market. It is expected that the volume of currency interventions during the week will not exceed $850 million, which corresponds to the usual mode of supporting stability.
The key factor capable of disrupting the fragile balance remains the war. The expert notes that problems in the energy sector, logistics, fuel risks, or infrastructure losses could add nervousness to the market. However, as long as these risks do not turn into a mass change in citizen behavior, the currency market will maintain stability.
At the same time, the information noise around exchange rates will persist. Daily insignificant changes may generate loud headlines about the "rise" or "fall" of the dollar, however, the situation must be assessed based on the general trend, not on momentary fluctuations.
