A turning point is emerging in the Ukrainian fuel market: following two weeks of panic tension surrounding diesel fuel, the wholesale market has begun to stabilize, whereas liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), by contrast, may rise in price to approximately 60 hryvnias per liter. Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group, shared this in a blitz interview with RBC-Ukraine, commenting on current price dynamics and prospects for the coming weeks.
Diesel Panic Subsides
According to the expert, the panic tension in the wholesale diesel market that lasted over the past two weeks has noticeably weakened. "News appeared that the panic in the wholesale market has disappeared... We felt that the tension has subsided. There is no longer any panicked demand, and wholesale prices have even decreased. Therefore, I think price stabilization at gas stations will happen now, and there will be no further increase in diesel prices," Kuyun noted. Thus, the frantic demand that previously supported high prices has been replaced by more composed behavior among market participants.
The Role of Priority Customs Clearance
The expert cited the government's decision last week to make customs clearance for fuel a priority as a key factor in stabilization. In his assessment, accelerating the passage of fuel across the border is precisely what helped remove the shortage panic and return wholesale quotes to a calmer range. At the same time, Kuyun emphasized that the market will continue to monitor global price dynamics, as the situation worldwide remains tense and could once again affect the purchase prices of Ukrainian importers.
Liquefied Gas: Forecast Up to 60 Hryvnias per Liter
Unlike diesel, the expert views the forecast for liquefied gas as discouraging. According to him, the cost of auto gas on gas station boards could rise to roughly 60 hryvnias per liter. Resource shortages and logistics issues, which prevent the rapid balancing of supply on the domestic market and the maintenance of previous price levels, are cited as the reasons.
Why Diesel Won't Reach 150 Hryvnias
Kuyun also addressed pessimistic scenarios projecting diesel fuel at 150 hryvnias per liter and above. The expert stated that he does not believe in such an outcome, as a gradual decrease in global fuel consumption is observed worldwide, limiting the potential for a sharp price spike. A broader market overview provides context: over the past three weeks, oil prices on global exchanges have risen from about 70 to over 100 dollars per barrel, which has already affected procurement; however, according to the expert's assessment, this does not imply an automatic transition of diesel into an ultra-high price bracket.
Lack of Price Containment Mechanisms
Separately, the expert drew attention to a structural problem: Ukraine lacks effective state mechanisms to restrain prices in the event of a spike in global oil prices—neither subsidies nor tax cuts. "In Ukraine, there is even less of a possibility to subsidize prices because there is no extra money in the budget. Therefore, we essentially transfer prices directly to gas station pumps," Kuyun summarized. This means that any fluctuations on the global market will soon be transmitted to retail prices at gas stations with minimal state buffering.
