GUR Reports a Rift in the Kremlin Elite: Ukrainian Intelligence Assesses That Putin Fears Oligarchs' Influence

At the YES Annual Meeting 2026 conference, organized by the Viktor Pinchuk Foundation, Vadym Skybitskyi, a representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, presented an assessment of the internal state of the Russian regime. According to him, this assessment is based on actual intercepted Russian documents. As reported by RBC-Ukraine, the focus was on the question of how stable Vladimir Putin's inner circle is and which forces within it are genuinely interested in ending the war against Ukraine.

Two Groups in Putin's Inner Circle

According to Skybitskyi, Ukrainian intelligence analysis allows for the clear identification of at least two groups within the dictator's entourage. In his assessment, this division becomes especially evident during periods of potential negotiation processes, when differing positions on the further conduct of the conflict emerge within the elite. The GUR representative emphasized that at this moment "the regime is genuinely afraid of internal collapse and destabilization in the country."

Signals from Domestic Political Dynamics

An additional indicator pointed out by Skybitskyi was data from tracking domestic political dynamics in the run-up to the electoral processes in the Russian Federation. He stated that a noticeable decline in support for pro-government parties, primarily United Russia, has been recorded. "This was a clear signal for the regime," the Ukrainian intelligence representative noted, linking the shrinking electoral base to growing anxiety at the top.

Fear of Oligarchs and the Khodorkovsky Lesson

Separately, Skybitskyi stated that Putin fears the influence of oligarchs, mindful of the experience of the Mikhail Khodorkovsky case. In his assessment, it is precisely this anxiety that is reflected in the concrete steps taken by the Russian authorities to control the economic elites. In response to a question about the possibility of the West "buying off" oligarchs who disagree with the dictator, the GUR representative called on international partners to "clearly understand who in the Russian elite genuinely wants to stop the war and who is striving for its continuation."

Contradictory Data

It should be noted that the assessment of a rift in the elite and Putin's "fear" of his own entourage comes from a single channel—documents allegedly intercepted by the GUR—and has not been independently verified. At the same time, earlier in May, Russian media, citing secret European intelligence documents, reported that Putin fears a coup and considers his removal by drones possible, while the British publication The Guardian wrote about growing frustration in his entourage over the failed war and its consequences for the economy. Thus, the theme of internal tension is corroborated by several independent sources; however, the exact composition, size, and influence of the mentioned "two groups" remain a matter of intelligence assessments rather than publicly verifiable fact.

Context of the Statement

The speech came against the backdrop of ongoing discussions about the prospects for negotiations and which forces within Russia are capable of influencing the course of the conflict. The Ukrainian side is, in effect, proposing that Western partners use channels of influence over the economic elites, after first delineating their positions. Like any intelligence assessments of closed political processes, these statements require cautious interpretation and cross-verification.