As autumn approaches, Ukrainian savers once again face the classic dilemma: keep their funds in a hryvnia deposit or buy US dollars. Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine, offered a specific mathematical approach to comparing the two instruments, one that moves beyond intuitive estimates and relies on pure after-tax yield.
The Mathematics of a Hryvnia Deposit
According to Mamedov's calculations, placing 100,000 hryvnia for six months at 17.5% per annum yields a net income of around 6,700 hryvnia, i.e. about 6.7% of the initial amount. Thus, after half a year the depositor has approximately 106,700 hryvnia. At an average deposit rate of 15% per annum, the net yield over the same period is about 5.8% of the invested capital. These figures are already after tax and reflect the real growth of funds, not the nominal rate that banks advertise in their promotional materials.
How Much the Dollar Exchange Rate Must Rise for Parity
For a dollar purchase to deliver a similar result, the US dollar exchange rate must rise by more than 6.7% over six months at a 17.5% rate, or by 5.8% at a 15% rate. In absolute terms this means: with an assumed starting rate of 45 hryvnia per dollar, the target level for parity is roughly 48 hryvnia in the first scenario and about 47.6 hryvnia in the second. At the same time, Mamedov emphasizes that the calculation does not account for the spread between the bank's buying and selling rates for currency, so in practice the required rise in the exchange rate must be even higher for the investor to truly break even or come out ahead relative to the deposit.
Exchange Rate Forecast for September 2026
According to Serhiy Mamedov's estimate, in September 2026 the US dollar exchange rate will most likely be in the range of 45–45.8 hryvnia, while the euro will be in the corridor of 51.5–53 hryvnia. If this scenario materializes, the expected exchange-rate movement over the remaining autumn months may not be enough for the dollar to outperform the yield of a high-rate hryvnia deposit. In other words, under current parameters, betting on currency does not guarantee an advantage over a bank deposit, unless there is a sharp and unforeseen weakening of the hryvnia.
Diversification Instead of Choosing a Single Instrument
Currency savings, according to the banker, have a different advantage: they can protect part of the savings from an unexpected weakening of the national currency, which can happen at any moment. That is precisely why Mamedov insists that framing the question as "hryvnia or dollar" as a choice of a single instrument is a flawed strategy. It is far more sensible to diversify savings: hryvnia deposits provide a predictable and measurable yield, while currency serves to insure part of the savings against exchange-rate risks. When choosing the proportions, the expert recommends considering the specific amount, the planned holding period, and how quickly the money may be needed.
Limitations of the Calculation and Disclaimer
It is important to note that the calculations provided are simplified and do not account for a number of factors: changes in the NBU's key rate during the deposit term, possible indexation or revision of terms by banks, as well as transaction costs when buying and selling currency. The material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments carry risk, including the possibility of total loss of capital. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended to consult a licensed financial advisor.
