The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a recent report cited by RBC-Ukraine has exposed the logic that analysts believe Moscow is pursuing by insisting on conducting the next humanitarian mission specifically in Kostiantynivka. According to ISW's assessment, a temporary ceasefire in this area would allow Russian troops to strengthen the southern flank of the so-called "fortress belt" and create conditions for resuming attempts to capture Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia.

Rejection of Ukrainian Options

Analysts recall that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously noted that Kyiv's representatives handed the US a list of seven to eight occupied settlements where a humanitarian truce would be appropriate, but the Kremlin rejected these options. Instead, Russia put forward its own proposal — to conduct a mission in Kostiantynivka modeled on the one that took place in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast. ISW believes this stance is an attempt to convince the American side to take at face value the fabricated picture of the frontline situation promoted by Moscow.

A Scenario Modeled on Oleshky

According to ISW, Russian forces will likely use the local ceasefire in Kostiantynivka and its surroundings to accumulate forces and resources in the area, analogous to the situation during the truce in Oleshky. At that time, the ceasefire regime covered a wider area in the Kherson direction to ensure the safe evacuation of the civilian population. Presumably, a potential truce in Kostiantynivka should also cover adjacent territories.

Moving Equipment Under the Cover of Silence

"Russian military command likely plans to use the local ceasefire in the Kostiantynivka area to strengthen its positions there and then intensify attempts to capture the 'fortress belt' from the southern and southwestern directions," analysts believe. They emphasize that in the event of a temporary ceasefire in a wide sector, Russian troops could safely move heavy equipment closer to the front line without fearing Ukrainian drone strikes.

80% of Offensive Activity

ISW also notes that the total number of Russian attacks in the Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka directions accounts for 80% of all offensive activity by Russian troops against Ukraine's "fortress belt" since the beginning of October 2026. Analysts believe this indicates the high importance of these directions for the Russian military command and explains why Kostiantynivka specifically became the target of the "humanitarian" proposal.

Positions of the Parties After the November 12 Meeting

Recall that during a meeting with US President's special representatives on November 12, Vladimir Putin stated that a humanitarian mission modeled on Oleshky could be organized in Kostiantynivka. The Kremlin stated that Russian forces are ready to begin demining Kostiantynivka, which they claim will take about five days. The Office of the President of Ukraine noted that Russia might be proposing the mission to rotate its military personnel in Oleshky. Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated that the Ukrainian side is unaware of any developments regarding a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in turn, stated that Russia wants to organize the mission to finally capture the city, where, according to him, there are almost no civilians left — only military personnel.