The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has published an analysis concluding that the Russian leadership has no intention of making substantial concessions to end the war against Ukraine. Experts analyzed the statements made following Vladimir Putin's meeting with U.S. presidential special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and concluded that Moscow is in fact adhering to the same maximalist demands that were put forward back in June 2024.
Maximalist Demands Unchanged
According to the analysts, the unchanged conditions include the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions — including territories not controlled by the Russian army — as well as the "demilitarization" and "de-Nazification" of Ukraine and the country's renunciation of NATO membership. In ISW's view, the statement by presidential aide Yuri Ushakov after the talks with the American delegation "indicates that the Kremlin, as before, is unwilling to make any substantial compromises."
Distorted Assessment of the Situation at the Front
The key problem highlighted by the analysts is the Kremlin's exaggerated assessment of its own successes. Ushakov conveyed that Putin, during the meeting, spoke of "significant successes" by the Russian army along the front line. ISW considers this assessment inflated and links it to the systematic distortion of information by Russian military commanders at various levels. It is precisely this, according to the experts, that reinforces Putin's conviction that further offensive operations will allow the goals to be achieved without concessions.
The 2026 Deadline and Konstantinovka
A source close to the Kremlin stated before the visit of the American delegation that a peace agreement is impossible until the entire Donetsk region is captured, and that Putin, according to him, is confident this task will be completed by the end of 2026 — the final deadline set by the Kremlin. At the same time, ISW notes that since the start of the full-scale war, Putin has set at least 15 such deadlines, none of which have been met. Russian forces have been fighting for Konstantinovka since October 2025 and have been unable to capture it in 11 months, while Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkovka remain ahead as part of the Ukrainian fortified belt.
Contradictory Data
There is a clear discrepancy between the versions here. On the one hand, the Russian side publicly claims "significant successes" and readiness for the "capture" of cities such as Konstantinovka, as well as the possibility of taking the entire Donetsk region by December 31, 2026. On the other hand, ISW asserts that the city has not been occupied after 11 months of combat operations, and that the actual pace of advance does not allow any of the set deadlines to be met. Thus, according to the analysts, Moscow's "victory" rhetoric and the actual dynamics at the front do not align.
ISW Estimates: Not Before 2032
The analysts also provide a quantitative estimate: in August, the average rate of advance of Russian forces across the entire theater of operations was 2.91 square kilometers per day. If this rate is maintained, the occupation of the remaining 19% of the Donetsk region would, according to ISW's calculations, only become possible around October 2, 2032 — and even then, if at all. The experts emphasize that they are not ready to assert that Russia will be able to establish full control over the region in the first place, which makes the deadline set for the end of 2026 unrealistic.
