"The NATO model remained in the Cold War era": ex-head of CPD Kovalenko analyzed vulnerabilities of Western unity

Andriy Kovalenko, the former head of the Center for Countering Disinformation and a lieutenant of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, delivered a detailed analysis of the current global security architecture and the state of the NATO alliance on the RBC-Ukraine podcast "ETO BAZA" (THIS IS THE BASE). According to his assessment, the fundamental model of the Western world and the structure of the North Atlantic Alliance are still built on principles formed during the Cold War, when the dominant role of the US ensured a balance of power for a weaker Europe. Kovalenko emphasized that the global security system encompasses not only the European continent but also Japan, South Korea, and the entire Indo-Pacific region, making the stability of the American anchor critically important for all participants in the system.

Economic weight of Europe and the role of the Nordic countries

Discussing the internal structure of the European bloc, Kovalenko noted that Germany and France remain the economically strongest players in Europe. However, in his view, it is the Nordic countries—the Scandinavian states—that could potentially become the main bastion of stability within the alliance. He cited this thesis in the context of potential political shifts in major European economies, which, according to his assessment, could weaken the pro-Western course and the unity of the bloc.

The British factor and tools of Russian propaganda

A separate block of Kovalenko's reflections was devoted to the UK's role in the Western security system. He stated that British intelligence outperforms American intelligence in many components, and Russia is a strategic adversary of the United Kingdom. Against this backdrop, he said, Russian propaganda is purposefully trying to unbalance Western unity. Kovalenko explained that Moscow benefits from broadcasting the narrative that Britain "controls" Ukraine, as well as injecting into the US information space the thesis that London acts against American interests and Europe should not provide aid because Britain acts as a "puppeteer." According to his assessment, such manipulations are aimed at undermining trust between key members of the alliance.

Political risks and the scenario of US weakening

Kovalenko stated directly that the weakening of the United States is critically disadvantageous for both Ukraine and Europe, as it will entail complex security crises. He linked this risk to potential political changes in key EU countries, mentioning the scenario in which the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could win elections in Germany and Marine Le Pen in France. In such a case, he said, "the Nordic countries will remain the bastion of the alliance in Europe." Kovalenko summarized: "A weak US is not beneficial to us and Europe. Because then we will see a difficult situation in Europe, including regarding security."

Strategic context and significance of the statement

Kovalenko's speech came amid ongoing discussions about the future of transatlantic relations and the sustainability of collective security in a multipolar world. His assessment underscores that, in the opinion of Ukrainian experts, preserving an effective American role remains a central condition for the stability of the entire Western security architecture. RBC-Ukraine promised to publish the full version of the podcast "ETO BAZA" featuring Kovalenko on the publication's YouTube channel.