The international Lancet Commission on global health threats in the 21st century has published a comprehensive report systematizing 17 major factors that could threaten human health and existence between 2025 and 2100. The findings, prepared by 35 leading global experts, were presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin. The researchers analyzed data from 204 countries and territories to assess how much potential damage civilization can still prevent.
The DALYs Metric and a Map of 17 Threats
To compare the scale of various risks, the authors used the DALYs metric—the number of healthy life years lost due to disease, disability, or premature death. This approach allowed expressing the consequences of both chronic conditions and existential scenarios in uniform units. Among the 17 highlighted threats are climate change, air pollution, military conflicts, economic inequality, and the dangerous use of new technologies. The commission emphasizes that these threats are interconnected, making piecemeal responses ineffective.
Two Scenarios That Could Lead to Extinction
Experts categorized two threats as potentially capable of causing civilization's collapse: the malicious use of artificial intelligence and a large-scale nuclear conflict. In the first case, concerns stem from the possibility that new technologies could facilitate the creation of dangerous biological agents and weapons. In the second, consequences would extend beyond immediate destruction: scientists warn of the threat of "nuclear famine," where post-war climate changes drastically reduce food production. While the probability of both scenarios is assessed as relatively low, their consequences are described as catastrophic.
The Geography of Risks: Obesity in Rich Nations, Education in Poor Ones
The structure of threats varies significantly depending on regional income levels. In wealthy countries, the primary danger comes from non-communicable diseases—primarily obesity and mental health issues. In poor regions, most healthy life losses are driven by social factors and low levels of education. This means there are no universal recipes: healthcare policy must account for local risk specifics.
The Cost of Aid Cuts and the Climate Scenario
The commission paid special attention to cuts in international aid budgets by key donors. According to the authors' calculations, a collapse or significant reduction in healthcare grants could cost humanity up to 1.5 billion healthy life years by 2100, with nearly 70% of these losses occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, keeping global warming at 1.8°C instead of a pessimistic 4.4°C scenario would preserve 1.89 billion healthy life years, according to the researchers.
"Not to Intimidate, but to Provide a Risk Map"
The researchers emphasize that the goal of the report is not to frighten society, but to provide governments with a clear risk map for effective decision-making. The commission plans to update its ranking annually, urging leaders to invest in proper technological innovations and systematically strengthen healthcare systems to reduce population vulnerability to crises.
