The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has released the updated geomagnetic activity schedule for the second half of October 2026. According to preliminary observation data, the month will feature both calm periods and days with a short-term increase in indices, including the possibility of a minor magnetic storm at the very end of the month.
Geomagnetic Conditions Dynamics from October 15 to 20
As of October 15, the maximum projected Kp-index is 3 units, reflecting a moderate state of Earth's magnetic field. From October 16 to 20, the geomagnetic background will stabilize, and the indicator will drop to 2, corresponding to completely calm conditions. Experts note that no magnetic storms of G1 level or higher are expected during these days.
Increased Activity in the Third Decade of the Month
A new phase of changes will begin on October 21, when the Kp-index rises back to 3. Over the following days, October 22 and 23, the indicator will increase to 4 units. This level is classified as elevated geomagnetic activity, although it does not yet reach the official magnetic storm threshold of 5 units. On October 24, the index is projected to decline to 3, and from October 25 to 30, conditions will return to calm levels of 2.
Expected Surge on October 31 and the Nature of Disturbances
The most noticeable increase in activity is expected on the last day of the month, October 31. Preliminary calculations show that the Kp-index may reach 5 units, corresponding to a minor G1-class magnetic storm according to the NOAA scale. According to European Space Agency explanations, such phenomena occur due to the interaction of solar wind and coronal mass ejections with our planet's magnetosphere. Disturbances of this level can cause minor impacts on satellite systems and radio communications, though long-term forecasts for several weeks ahead may be adjusted as the dates approach.
