According to five alliance diplomats, European NATO allies are beginning preparations for the worst-case scenario following the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. The main concern in Brussels and European capitals is that if the Republican Party loses control of Congress, President Donald Trump will face domestic policy obstacles and, as commander-in-chief, will be able to focus more heavily on foreign policy decisions where he retains broad freedom of action. According to diplomats' assessments, this exact scenario could lead to a new escalation in Washington's relations with European partners.
What NATO Diplomats Are Saying
Three out of five interviewed diplomats note that one potential consequence could be the withdrawal of thousands more US troops from Europe. A high-ranking European defense official, whose remarks are cited by the publication, characterizes the typical behavior of a lame-duck president as a combination of "venting frustrations and adventurism" in foreign policy. According to him, criticism of NATO has long been "an integral part of Trump's worldview," making escalating rhetoric a predictable risk.
Scenarios: From Troop Withdrawals to Budgets
Additional concern in Europe is caused by the upcoming review of US troop levels on the continent, which is expected to be conducted before December. Three NATO diplomats concede that if Trump faces difficulties advancing domestic legislative initiatives, he might pursue a more massive reduction of the military contingent to secure the support of the MAGA movement's base. Other discussed scenarios include conditioning the continued presence of US troops in Europe on European countries' willingness to agree to a peace deal for Ukraine backed by Washington, as well as cutting the US contribution to the joint NATO budget and restricting participation in the PURL program, through which allies purchase American weaponry for Ukraine.
Background: Trump's Approval and Relations with Russia
Within the US itself, analysts expect Democrats to win a majority in the House of Representatives and potentially alter the balance of power in the Senate. Against this backdrop, Trump's approval rating has reportedly dropped to its lowest level during his presidency. Tensions between the US and European nations, according to diplomats, have already intensified following the halt of US support for Ukraine regarding Starlink satellite communications, as well as amid Trump's rapprochement with Vladimir Putin. Diplomats do not rule out further deepening of ties between the US and Russia.
What the White House is Preparing
The Trump administration is reportedly preparing in advance for a potential transition of Congress to Democratic control. The White House is already looking for ways to continue implementing the president's agenda without legislative support—specifically through executive actions. A more radical scenario is also mentioned separately: if the Republican Party performs poorly in the midterms, Trump might lean toward a large-scale military operation against Iran. For Europe, all these listed options boil down to a single conclusion: the coming months will require readiness for intensified pressure from Washington on the alliance.
