The Russian military-political leadership continues to demonstrate a disconnection from the real situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. According to recent analytical reports by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the data voiced by the Kremlin regarding the territorial gains of the Russian army have nothing in common with the objective picture of hostilities. Experts note an unprecedented gap between official Moscow propaganda and the real state of affairs at the front.
The Illusion of a Large-Scale Offensive
Recently, Vladimir Putin publicly stated that in September 2026 alone, Russian troops allegedly captured more than 1,300 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. According to Moscow's claims, these figures exceed the results of previous months by 2.5 times. However, detailed monitoring and geographical analysis of the frontline conducted by ISW specialists completely refute these triumphant reports, pointing to a deep distortion of facts in the Russian leadership's reports.
Real Figures and Territorial Losses
Instead of the claimed seizure of 1,301 sq km, analysts recorded the opposite trend. By the end of September, the net territorial losses of Russian troops amounted to 80.81 square kilometers. Even taking into account short-term tactical penetrations into certain areas where the invaders failed to gain a foothold and establish stable control, total territory losses amounted to 175.18 sq km. The Russian army is not advancing on a broad front; it is suffering losses.
Contradictory Data
It is worth noting that there is a certain dissonance in assessing the reasons for such a sharp discrepancy between official statements and the combat map. On the one hand, ISW experts classify Putin's words as an element of cognitive warfare designed to convince domestic and foreign audiences of the inevitability of Russia's victory. On the other hand, analysts suggest that the Russian dictator may not be lying intentionally, but rather genuinely deluded due to the deeply rooted system within the Russian Ministry of Defense of hiding negative news and providing leadership with exclusively comfortable but false reports.
Economic Pressure and Budget Militarization
Such a disconnection from reality is accompanied by unprecedented pressure on the Russian economy. According to budget plans, in 2027 Moscow intends to spend 17.1 trillion rubles on military needs, which is more than 40% higher than the current year's figures. Total military expenditures have grown by almost 380% compared to the pre-war period, demonstrating the Kremlin's readiness to continue exhausting the state for the sake of illusory goals at the front.
