Russia Lowers Its 2026 Gas Production Forecast: What Has Changed in Moscow's Energy Strategy

The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has revised downward its forecasts for natural gas production and exports for 2026. According to the published draft document, cited by Reuters, the country now expects production of 683.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas this year — 5.3 billion cubic meters less than assumed in the May forecast. The adjustment is linked to the sustained reduction of energy ties with the West and the European Union's plans to fully phase out Russian supplies. The updated figures, according to the outlet, will be used when adjusting the Russian federal budget through 2029.

Production: Down from the plan, but up versus 2025

It is important to note that, despite the downward revision relative to the May estimate, the expected 2026 production volume (683.1 billion cubic meters) still exceeds the actual 2025 result of 662.7 billion cubic meters. In other words, this is not an absolute decline in production, but a slowdown in the pace of its growth. Nevertheless, a number of Ukrainian and Western media outlets use the phrasing "production decline" in their headlines, which reflects the revision of planned targets rather than the actual dynamics of output.

LNG: Exports are growing, but slower than expected

Exports of liquefied natural gas appear as a separate line in the updated forecast. According to the draft document, LNG shipments abroad in 2026 could reach 35 million tons, compared with 30.3 million tons a year earlier. However, this figure is 5.3 million tons below the previous estimate, indicating a reassessment of expectations for the pace of export growth. In the medium term, Russian LNG exports are expected to continue rising, but the growth rate will be significantly lower than previously assumed.

Europe: From 180 billion cubic meters to 18 — in six years

The forecast revision is taking place against the backdrop of a sharp shift in the geography of Russian gas exports. According to Reuters calculations, Russian gas deliveries to Europe in 2025 fell by 44% to about 18 billion cubic meters — the lowest level since the mid-1970s, following the end of transit through Ukrainian territory. For comparison: in 2018–2019, Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU reached roughly 180 billion cubic meters per year. Thus, over six years, the volume of supplies to the Old Continent has shrunk by more than tenfold. The European Union, for its part, plans to fully stop purchasing Russian gas from 2027.

Contradictory data

The publications on the topic contain a number of inconsistencies and contradictions. First, a number of sources (including RBC-Ukraine) speak of a "decline in gas production" in their headlines, whereas the actual figures show growth relative to 2025 — the reduction concerns only the planned estimate, not real output. Second, Moscow publicly states its readiness to resume gas supplies to Europe, including via the remaining branch of the "North Stream" pipeline, yet Brussels has enshrined in its strategy a full phase-out of Russian fuel from 2027. Third, despite the EU's declared course on de-gasification from Russian supplies, European countries in practice continue to purchase gas in significant volumes, creating a gap between the declared policy and market reality. Finally, in the context of the ongoing conflict, it is mentioned that Ukraine potentially possesses the capability to strike infrastructure linked to Russian gas exports, which additionally affects long-term forecasts.

Context and outlook

The revision of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development's 2026 forecasts and the budget adjustment through 2029 reflect a systemic restructuring of the Russian gas industry, which is increasingly oriented toward Asian markets and domestic demand. The lowering of planned production and LNG export figures signals that Moscow is building more conservative scenarios into its budget calculations, accounting for both sanctions pressure and the structural decline in European demand. For Ukraine and EU partner countries, the key issue remains the pace of diversification of energy sources and the readiness of infrastructure for a full transition to alternative supplies in 2027.