«Super» El Niño sets the tone for winter 2026/2027: up to 35 cm of snow expected in the Alps and Scandinavia as early as late October

While Ukraine maintains relatively warm weather in October, European meteorological services are recording the first signs of approaching winter. According to preliminary forecasts based on six seasonal models updated in October 2026, heavy snowfall is likely in certain regions of Europe in the coming days — between October 23 and 25 (with a possible deviation of a few days). This is reported by the specialized resource Severe Weather Europe and the Polish meteorological portal DobraPogoda24.pl, referenced by RBC-Ukraine.

«Super» El Niño: The main driver of winter dynamics

The key factor that, according to researchers, will determine the overall «snowfall picture» throughout the 2026/2027 winter is the so-called «super» El Niño. This is an anomalously powerful phase of a natural climatic phenomenon characterized by extremely high water surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean. According to six seasonal models formed in October of this year, the impact of this phenomenon is already «clearly traceable»: a slow start to the snow season is expected in December, with the strongest snowfall signal occurring in the second half of winter and a high probability of its persistence into early spring. «This is a pronounced sign of a "super" El Niño,» explain Severe Weather Europe analysts. Overall, winter in Europe is preliminarily forecast to be mild and wet.

Where snow will be below normal and where it will be higher

Based on models available as of October, the «snow season» across most of Europe is expected to be weak. Below-normal deviations cover virtually all western, central, and southern regions of the continent, according to averaged data from six seasonal models. Only in the far northeast of Europe and in small areas of northern mountain ranges is precipitation forecast to be above normal. In terms of monthly indicators, across most of Western, Central, and Southern Europe, no winter month is forecast with above-normal figures. An exception is February, which across a significant territory from east-central to northeastern regions may feature increased snowfall amounts.

October 23–25: Blizzards and up to 35 cm of snow in the Alps and Scandinavia

The first tangible snowfalls in Europe, according to preliminary forecasts, are likely in the coming days. According to DobraPogoda24.pl data, heavy precipitation is expected during a shift in air masses and cooling in the Scandinavia region and along the main ridge of the Alps. Snow may fall at altitudes from 1,300 to 1,500 meters above sea level, meaning precipitation will affect not only high-altitude areas but also a number of foothill territories. It is in these zones that total snowfall could range from 10 to 35 centimeters, and locally even more. Associated weather conditions pose a particular hazard: precipitation is likely to be accompanied by strong winds, triggering snowstorms and blizzards capable of causing road gridlock. In other parts of Europe during the same period, notable rain cannot be ruled out in places.

First snow in Hungary: Late November and forecaster caveats

The Hungarian portal VAOL.hu reported that the first snow in the country, based on preliminary models, is likely between November 22 and 26. For Budapest, several nights between November 23 and 26 have been recorded when temperatures may drop to freezing or below zero. At the same time, the authors of the publication emphasize that «such data cannot yet be considered a final forecast,» as calculations may still change significantly. Furthermore, cooling alone is insufficient for snowfall: adequate precipitation and proper atmospheric temperature stratification are required. There is no guarantee that the first snow will fall everywhere simultaneously — conditions for snowfall may form earlier in mountainous and high-altitude areas than in lowlands.

Context: How El Niño affects winters in Eastern Europe

The trend toward a warm and wet winter caused by the «super» El Niño is not limited to Western Europe. According to estimates by the Phobos weather center, the upcoming winter in Central Russia is also expected to be anomalously warm and wet: temperature norms may be exceeded by 3–4 degrees Celsius, with the peak of warmth likely in February. At the same time, the winter will not be uniform — periods of severe frost cannot be ruled out, and due to high humidity and frequent cyclones, the season promises to be wet: in January, precipitation volume may exceed climatic norms by 30%, and in February by 50%. This means there will be plenty of snowfalls, but due to frequent thaws, a stable snow cover may form with a delay. A similar logic is seen in forecasts for Russia's Far Eastern regions, where October 2026 is expected to be about 1.4 degrees Celsius above climatic norms, but with possible sharp fluctuations and first snowfalls at the end of the month.