According to RBC-Ukraine, citing an Axios journalist's source, U.S. President Donald Trump may be inclined to launch a large-scale military operation against Iran if the Republican Party shows poor results in the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. A U.S. official familiar with the discussions stated that if the head of state feels "humiliated or lacks support" due to the voting results, he will "do something bold." According to the source, this is the message currently being conveyed to Iranian representatives, signaling that the best chance to reach a deal with Washington is right now.
Link to midterm elections
The scenario of possible escalation is being considered against the backdrop of strained relations between Washington and Tehran and parallel attempts to resume negotiations. On October 29, Axios reported that the U.S. and Israel had prepared a plan for large-scale strikes against Iran: according to American and Israeli officials, the operation could begin after the midterm elections and last about a week. Meanwhile, The Atlantic, cited by Vedomosti, points to a different logic: it claims the White House has instructed the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be executed before November 3, with the current "lull" coinciding with the campaign period to "avoid reminding voters of an unpopular war that is dragging down Republican candidates' positions."
White House and Iranian positions
At the same time, a White House spokesperson rejected the suggestion that midterm election results could influence Trump's decision on Iran, assuring that electoral outcomes would not be a factor in determining American policy toward Tehran. On the Iranian side, Supreme Leader of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly ordered the military command to prepare for a possible resumption of conflict with the U.S. and Israel. Thus, both sides are simultaneously demonstrating readiness for negotiations and for a military scenario.
Details of strike plans and pressure tools
The scale and specific targets of potential strikes are reportedly still under discussion. CNN, cited by 9tv.co.il, reports that the U.S. is considering using the "Mother of All Bombs" on Iran; however, the outlet notes that Trump might use it for psychological pressure on Tehran, and U.S. officials doubt that this would force Iran to capitulate or bring a strategic victory. Trump, for his part, previously stated that the war in Iran would end either with a U.S. strike or a deal.
Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and additional threats
An additional factor of tension is the increase in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz: according to Bloomberg, Iran has increased the number of strikes on tankers—with nine attacks recorded just since the beginning of October, which is half of all strikes in September. Separately, Euronews reports that Trump promised a "very tough" response to Iran if the country's authorities are linked to an incident involving a Flydubai aircraft. The combination of these signals indicates that the window for a diplomatic settlement is closing, and a decision on a military scenario may be tied to the U.S. political calendar.
