Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that a serious new escalation in Russia's hybrid war against Europe could occur in the coming months. According to the head of the Polish government, he has grounds to expect an «escalation even before Christmas,» relying on information and specific recommendations from the intelligence services of Ukraine, Poland, and allies. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing the WP Wiadomości publication.
Reaction to Siewiera's statement
Tusk's speech came in response to a recent statement by the former head of Poland's National Security Bureau, Jacek Siewiera, who claimed that Russia's hybrid war against Europe could reach a «decisive chord» this winter. Journalists asked the current prime minister to comment on these remarks. Tusk emphasized that he is not making predictions, but relying on intelligence and specific recommendations from the intelligence services of Ukraine, Poland, and allies, which form the basis of his assessment.
Winter as a period of heightened vulnerability
The Polish prime minister specifically warned of a difficult winter, especially regarding border security and railway infrastructure. According to him, these areas become most vulnerable during the cold period, when weather conditions and logistical constraints can be exploited for sabotage operations. Tusk urged preparations for new acts of sabotage and provocations on Polish territory, which, in his assessment, could occur more frequently and on a larger scale than before.
Regional context: Latvia and Lithuania
Commenting on the situation in the Baltic states, Tusk recalled that people in military uniform have already been spotted in Latvia, signaling a growing level of activity. «Lithuania expects some serious provocation,» the prime minister stated. At the same time, he emphasized: «One thing is obvious: Russia will escalate this and test our reaction — that is the problem.» Thus, the Polish leadership views the coming months as a period of targeted testing of allies for resilience and readiness to respond.
Broader context: Moscow's plans and Belarus's role
Tusk's speech comes against the backdrop of other reports regarding expanding Russian pressure. Earlier, RBC-Ukraine reported that Putin's new plan covers every major Ukrainian city. In addition, it became known that Russia plans to deploy ballistic missiles in Belarus and draw the country into the war. Combined, these factors create conditions for the hybrid campaign against Europe to reach a new level of intensity precisely during the winter period of 2026–2027, according to the Polish prime minister.
What this means for Poland and the EU
Tusk's warning effectively sets the framework for preparing Polish and European security services for the winter season. The call to prepare for sabotage «on a larger scale» means Warsaw expects not isolated incidents, but a series of coordinated actions. The mention of railway infrastructure and borders points to specific targets that, according to intelligence, could be targeted. For European partners, this is a signal of the need to strengthen intelligence coordination and operational readiness on NATO's eastern flank ahead of winter.
