In August 2026, the sociological landscape in Russia underwent significant changes. According to the latest data from the independent Levada Center, published by RBC-Ukraine, the share of Russian citizens who consider the war against Ukraine successful has reached its absolute minimum since the start of the full-scale invasion. The figure has dropped to 50%, indicating a critical decline in public support for the Kremlin's military actions.

Statistical failure: from 69% to 50%

A detailed analysis of data from July 2026 reveals an alarming trend for the Russian propaganda machine. Only 8% of respondents rated the course of hostilities as "very successful." Another 42% of respondents lean towards the opinion that the army's actions are "rather successful." In total, this gives exactly half the population supporting the current course. Over the last year, the total share of supporters of a "successful war" has decreased by 19 percentage points, which is an unprecedented drop for the entire duration of the conflict.

Historical context and previous anti-records

To understand the scale of what is happening, it is worth referring to previous data. The previous anti-record for the level of support for the war was recorded in the autumn of 2022, immediately after the announcement of partial mobilization. At that time, 53% of respondents considered the invasion successful (9% - very successful, 44% - rather successful). The current figures for 2026 (50%) not only updated this minimum but also showed that war fatigue in society is systemic and growing, despite years of information isolation.

Growth of skepticism and negative assessment

Parallel to the decline in positive assessments, the share of Russians recognizing the failure of the war is growing. At present, 28% of citizens believe that the war is continuing unsuccessfully. Of these, 8% assess the course of events as "extremely unsuccessful," and 20% as "rather unsuccessful." Notably, a higher negative indicator was recorded only once - in November 2022, when it reached 32%. This indicates that society is in a state of deep disappointment, close to the peak values of the 2022 crisis.

Reasons for the decline in ratings and social fatigue

Experts and analysts link the drop in approval ratings for Vladimir Putin's actions to a number of factors. Among the main reasons are strict restrictions in the digital space: blocking Telegram, limiting mobile internet, and censorship. In addition, the mood of citizens is influenced by rising prices for essential goods and general "war fatigue." The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Russians are showing increasing interest in ending the conflict, especially against the backdrop of Ukrainian attacks that the Russian air defense could not effectively repel.

Contradictory data

It is important to note the discrepancy in the methodology of assessing public opinion. The official VCIOM, working in close coordination with state structures, traditionally publishes data that differs significantly from the Levada Center. While independent sociologists record a drop in support to 50%, state polls may demonstrate more stable or even growing figures of loyalty. This creates a situation of "two realities": an official one, where the people "unanimously support," and a real one, which is recorded by independent researchers. The gap between these data in 2026 has reached its maximum, making the interpretation of the situation extremely difficult for external observers.