Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are actively preparing for a potential armed clash with Russia, radically restructuring their defense doctrines. Amid persisting geopolitical tensions, the Baltic states aim to strengthen their own capabilities and are calculating scenarios where large-scale external assistance from NATO allies might be delayed or limited. Journalist Isaac Stanley-Becker of the authoritative publication The Atlantic spent a month in the region, personally observing military exercises and interviewing key political and military leaders of the Baltic states.
Realistic maneuvers and total defense tactics
One of the key episodes of the investigation was large-scale simulations in the Lithuanian village of Bezdonys, where volunteers from the Lithuanian Riflemen Union practiced repelling simulated enemy attacks, organizing the evacuation of the wounded, and rapidly gathering intelligence. Chief of Defence of the Lithuanian Army General Raimundas Vaikšnoras emphasized that the main goal of such measures is to demonstrate to a potential aggressor the lack of an alternative to fierce resistance. Anti-tank ditches, reinforced concrete fortifications known as "dragon's teeth," and advanced surveillance systems utilizing artificial intelligence and infrared sensors are already being deployed along the borders with Belarus.
The critical factor of the first 72 hours and the bet on drones
Special attention in the article is paid to analyzing the critically important first 72 hours of a potential conflict, during which local forces must hold off the onslaught until allied reserves arrive. Drawing on Ukraine's current combat experience, the armies of the Baltic trio are rapidly integrating unmanned aerial vehicles into their units. Given the lack of resources to fight a protracted war of attrition alone, the strategy is built on maximizing the delay of the enemy's advance. At the same time, military planners soberly assess the risks: European partners are increasing their presence, but replacing critical US capabilities such as satellite reconnaissance and precision long-range weapons will be extremely difficult.
Contradictory data
Significant diplomatic and informational discrepancies are noted regarding international support and Moscow's reaction. For instance, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed confidence that regional security is reliably guaranteed by Washington, while Baltic military strategists are practicing scenarios for conducting independent combat operations in the event of delayed or absent US assistance. From the Russian side, the rhetoric is diametrically opposed: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other high-ranking officials openly state that any calls by European leaders to prepare for confrontation provoke escalation, and threats against Lithuania over the hypothetical deployment of nuclear weapons underscore the extreme level of confrontation.
Prospects for regional security
Against the backdrop of mounting threats, intelligence agencies in several European countries note an increased likelihood of heightened hybrid provocations against NATO in the near future. In response to these risks, Lithuanian authorities have already approved a detailed evacuation plan for the capital Vilnius, outlining key population movement routes toward the Polish border. Isaac Stanley-Becker summarizes his observations with the conclusion: although the Baltic republics still rely on the NATO and US security umbrella, the local population and military are mentally prepared to fight alone, guided by the unwavering principle of defending every meter of their land.
