Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that, according to intelligence data, the Russian Federation is preparing a new massive attack against Ukraine. According to RBC-Ukraine, the head of state reported this in his Telegram channel. "We currently have intelligence information that Russia is preparing a new massive attack against Ukraine," Zelensky emphasized, adding that Ukrainians live daily under the threat of missile and drone strikes.
Meeting with the UK Prime Minister: Security and Winter Preparedness
In the same statement, the president described a meeting with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (referred to in the statement as Andy Burnham), during which the two sides discussed security issues, the protection of Ukrainian citizens, preparations for the winter period, and available diplomatic opportunities. Zelensky thanked the United Kingdom for its consistent support of Ukraine's energy sector and noted that, ahead of the approaching winter, a new contribution had been made, which Kyiv particularly values. At the same time, he said, Ukraine is in constant communication with partners to find additional resources for the air defense system.
Position on Sanctions: "There Can Be No Talk of Lifting Them"
Commenting on Russia's preparation for a new strike, Zelensky stated that "there can be no talk of lifting sanctions, even." According to him, he and the UK Prime Minister share a common position on this issue: as long as the war continues, sanctions must not only be maintained but also strengthened. Thus, Kyiv is publicly reaffirming its line on maintaining sanctions pressure as a deterrent instrument against the backdrop of the threat of new massive strikes.
Energy Ceasefire: The Condition Named After the Meeting with Trump
Against the backdrop of discussions about the possibility of an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and the United States, Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump on September 22 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, after which he addressed the press and named a clear condition for such a ceasefire. "If they do not want us to strike their oil refineries, then let them not touch our energy system, our water supply. You do not strike ours, and we will leave yours alone," he formulated the principle of mutual abstention from strikes on critical infrastructure.
Context: Russia's Summer Tactics and Winter Preparations
According to RBC-Ukraine, throughout the summer Russia actively struck Ukraine with ballistic missiles, something that had not been observed before. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg outlet recently reported that Moscow had reduced such strikes and intensified attacks with one-way attack drones. Analysts link this to the possibility that Russia is stockpiling missiles for winter strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. It is precisely in this context that Zelensky emphasizes winter preparedness and support for air defense.
Contradictory Data
Signals about the nature of the upcoming strikes are diverging in the public domain. On the one hand, the intelligence assessment voiced by Zelensky points to the preparation of a new massive attack. On the other hand, Bloomberg's data speaks of a reduction in ballistic strikes and a shift to drones, which can be interpreted as a buildup of potential rather than its immediate use. Moreover, statements about a "massive attack" have not yet been confirmed by independent evidence of a specific time and scale of the strike, so both versions — of a full-scale strike being prepared and of a tactical shift to drones with missile stockpiling — remain in a zone of uncertainty until the moment of actual use of weapons.
Either way, the combination of an intelligence warning, diplomatic pressure along the sanctions line, and attempts to agree on an energy ceasefire forms the key context of the autumn-winter period. As RBC-Ukraine notes, whether an energy ceasefire is reached will largely determine the intensity of Russia's attacks this autumn and winter.
