The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine has assured that no physical shortage of buckwheat is expected in the country: production volumes of the new crop are estimated at over 80 thousand tonnes. However, according to the ministry's data, the retail price of the popular grain may rise by approximately 15% in the coming weeks. This was previously stated by the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotsky, who emphasized that the price increase is not linked to a lack of the product on shelves but is driven by seasonal factors and logistics costs.
Current price dynamics: what the official data says
According to monitoring by the Ministry of Finance based on data from the State Statistics Service, the average price of buckwheat in Ukraine in July 2026 was 75.17 UAH/kg. Notably, compared with June, the figure even fell by 1.96%. The Ministry of Finance's current retail chain monitoring records an average price of around 74.57 UAH/kg, indicating no sharp spike at the time the data was published. Nevertheless, as of 25 August 2026, actual price tags in Ukrainian supermarkets ranged from 55 to 70 hryvnias per kilogram, depending on the retail chain.
Expert forecast: when the price tag will cross 85 hryvnias
Maxim Hopska, head of the analytics department at UKAB, assessed the likelihood of crossing the 85 UAH/kg mark as quite realistic in the near term. The expert performed a simple calculation: if the maximum scenario from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy (+15%) is applied to the official average price of 75.17 UAH, the final cost will be approximately 86.45 UAH/kg. To exceed the psychological threshold of 85 hryvnias, a rise of just 13.1% from the current level is enough. "Such a price tag is quite possible, but for now we are awaiting the new harvest," Hopska noted, adding that with the arrival of the new harvest, pressure on prices typically eases.
Contradictory data
There is a notable gap between the official statistical figures and actual retail prices. According to the Ministry of Finance and the State Statistics Service, the average price of buckwheat in July was 75.17 UAH/kg, while the current monitoring records 74.57 UAH/kg. However, as of 25 August 2026, a kilogram of buckwheat in major retail chains cost between 55 and 70 hryvnias. The difference between the average statistical figure and real in-store price tags can be explained by the methodology for calculating the average price (the inclusion of wholesale and regional data), as well as by the fact that the Ministry of Finance's monitoring covers a broader range of retail outlets, including small shops and markets, where prices are traditionally lower than in federal chains. Nevertheless, for the end consumer buying grain in a supermarket, the actual price today is significantly below the forecast 85 hryvnias.
Why prices are rising despite no shortage
Experts explain the expected price increase by a seasonal factor: between the end of the previous harvest and the arrival of the new one on the market, a so-called "transitional period" forms, during which shelf supply is limited to leftovers from the previous campaign. At the same time, total buckwheat production in the current season is forecast at over 80 thousand tonnes, which rules out a scenario of a real shortage. Thus, according to analysts, the price rise to 85 hryvnias and above is of a temporary nature and should be smoothed out after the new harvest fully reaches the retail market.
What to expect in autumn
According to RBC-Ukraine materials, the topic of certain products disappearing from supermarket shelves and seasonal price increases remains relevant for the consumer market in autumn 2026. In this context, buckwheat is viewed not as a product with a systemic shortage, but as one whose cost is sensitive to the harvesting campaign cycle. For consumers planning bulk purchases, experts recommend relying on current retail prices in the range of 55–70 UAH/kg, since it is precisely during this period, before the new harvest fully comes in, that the grain's price is most attractive.
