Amidst the ongoing military conflict and the need to restore energy infrastructure, Ukraine is discussing the possibility of resuming natural gas exports. However, experts and representatives of relevant agencies emphasize that this is not about full market liberalization, but rather a strictly regulated mechanism. The main principle proposed by analysts is the priority of domestic consumers: exports may only be permitted if the needs of the population and industry within the country are fully met.
The "15 percent" mechanism: balancing security and the economy
Mykola Ryahtsev, a leading researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISI), confirmed the technical and economic feasibility of such a step. According to him, if domestic demand is fully covered, it makes sense to direct excess resources to external markets. Specifically, a limit of up to 15% of actual production from the previous month is being discussed. This proposal aims to allow producing companies to generate foreign currency revenue without jeopardizing the country's energy security. The expert noted that in wartime, any decision regarding resource flows remains the prerogative of the government, which must strictly regulate these processes.
Economic expediency and infrastructure restoration
The issue of exports is closely linked to the need to finance the restoration of facilities damaged by shelling. Vladimir Shchelkunov, President of ICC Ukraine, commenting on the initiative, noted that it concerns the sale of resources for which there is currently insufficient domestic demand. The funds obtained could be directed towards repairing damaged infrastructure, which is critical for maintaining the operation of the gas industry as a whole. Analysts note that private gas production in Ukraine is still approximately 26% lower than 2021 levels, making the issue of companies' financial sustainability particularly acute.
The role of the state in regulating flows
Despite economic incentives for business, state control remains a key factor. Mykola Ryahtsev emphasized that during wartime, decisions regarding permissible volumes and directions of supplies must be made exclusively by the government. This is necessary to prevent speculation and ensure that gas goes first to the needs of the army and the population. The mechanism must be transparent and accountable to avoid risks associated with resource leakage into non-controlled zones or bypassing state interests.
Contradictory data
While experts agree on the need for state control, there are nuances in assessing the current state of the market. On one hand, representatives of ICC Ukraine claim there is an excess of resources not in demand within the country. On the other hand, statistics show that total gas production is still significantly below pre-war levels. This creates a certain uncertainty: how realistic it is to allocate 15% of current production without creating a deficit during peak consumption periods. Furthermore, the question remains open as to how exactly the "excess" of resources will be determined in the dynamically changing conditions of war.
