Autumn 2026 in Ukraine may mark a noticeable but gradual increase in prices for dairy products. According to expert estimates, the segment will rise by 5–10% by the end of the year, with the first changes noticeable to consumers in their receipts expected as early as September–October. RBC-Ukraine reports on the forecast and its causes in an article on what will happen to food prices by the end of the year.
Seasonal factor: why autumn is a time of price pressure
The key driver of the price increase is cited as seasonality. According to expert Gopka, raw milk production traditionally declines in autumn, while demand from processors remains stable. It is precisely this mismatch between supply and demand that creates gradual price pressure in the dairy segment. The expert emphasises that this is not a sharp spike over a short period, but a smooth upward movement in prices, which, however, may become more noticeable to the end consumer by September–October.
Current prices: what the Ministry of Finance records
To understand the scale of the changes, it is important to start from the current figures. According to the Ministry of Finance, at the time of publication 900 ml of milk in Ukraine costs 64–84 UAH, cottage cheese — around 241 UAH, 950 ml of kefir — 64.96 UAH, 350 ml of sour cream — 54–74 UAH, and 200 g of butter — 120 UAH. It is from this base, according to forecasts, that the 5–10% increase by the end of the year will be measured.
Grain and production costs: other factors shaping prices
Unlike the dairy segment, grain supply on the domestic market is assessed as sufficient, so for certain product groups the main variable becomes the overall cost of production. This means that price dynamics will be uneven: where raw materials are in short supply (raw milk in autumn), the pressure will be stronger, while where supply is stable (grain), the increase will be more restrained and will largely depend on producers' costs and logistics.
No shortage, but there are logistical disruptions
It is important to distinguish between price increases and physical shortages. As noted in connection with the topic, there is no systemic food shortage in Ukraine, however, individual products may temporarily disappear from shelves due to delivery problems. It was previously reported that the Auchan chain introduced limits on the purchase of some products, while items above the limits can be acquired through an address for wholesale purchases. Thus, the autumn rise in dairy prices is primarily a matter of supply economics and production costs, not a lack of goods on the market.
