Dollar at 45 Hryvnias: Banker Forecasts Exchange Rate for November 9–15 and Explains the Role of NBU Interventions

Ukraine's currency market is entering a new phase: the dollar exchange rate has already crossed the psychological threshold of 45 hryvnias, and the rate dynamics in the coming days will depend entirely on how the market reacts to this milestone. In a commentary to RBC-Ukraine, Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globus Bank, presented a forecast for the period from November 9 to 15, 2026: on the interbank and cash markets, the dollar will range between 45–45.7 UAH, while the euro will stay in the corridor of 50–52 UAH. According to his assessment, the overall picture will remain predictable, and the nature of fluctuations will largely repeat the dynamics of the previous two weeks, although situational changes in supply and demand cannot be ruled out.

Imbalance in the Cash Market: Temporary Glitch, Not a Systemic Crisis

In early November, a noticeable imbalance arose in the cash segment due to a temporary reduction in the physical supply of dollars. This led to a widening gap between exchange rates in currency booths and on the interbank market, causing additional anxiety among private investors. However, as Lesovoy emphasizes, this situation does not indicate fundamental problems in the monetary system or the approach of a rapid depreciation of the hryvnia. It is expected that in the coming days, banks will replenish their cash dollar reserves, after which the gap between the two segments will gradually narrow, and additional currency supply will reduce pressure on selling rates in exchange offices.

NBU Interventions and the Managed Flexibility Mechanism

A key factor determining equilibrium on the interbank market remains the predominance of demand over supply, which, according to the banker's forecast, could reach 20–25%. A significant portion of currency needs is formed by purchases of fuel, energy equipment, and production materials—under wartime conditions, these expenditures are associated with maintaining enterprise operations, restoring damaged capacities, and ensuring the economic energy security. To compensate for the imbalance, the National Bank will continue currency interventions with an estimated volume of $1–1.5 billion per week. Thanks to the managed flexibility mechanism, the regulator will be able to curb excessive exchange rate fluctuations and prevent additional hype in the market.

Wartime Inflation: Costs Put Pressure on Final Prices

The economic background, according to Lesovoy's assessment, remains complex. Russian attacks on energy, industrial, and logistics infrastructure increase business costs and support inflation, which the banker characterizes as having a distinct wartime nature. We are talking about cost-push inflation: the rising cost of production, transportation, and energy supply is gradually translating into final prices for consumers. In such conditions, the National Bank will strive to keep the exchange rate near current levels so that excessive weakening of the hryvnia does not increase inflationary pressure on the domestic economy.

Key Parameters for the Week of November 9–15

According to Taras Lesovoy's forecast, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0.1–0.15 UAH, and average weekly rate deviations will be 1–1.5% from the starting rate of the week. Daily exchange rate changes will remain within a narrow corridor, confirming the relatively stable nature of the market during the specified period. At the same time, military and economic risks persist, and their evolution will be the main external factor capable of adjusting the baseline scenario.

Advice to Citizens: Do Not Buy Currency at Peaks

Separately, the banker draws attention to the behavioral aspect: since the dollar has already crossed the 45 hryvnia mark, the public's emotional reaction to further exchange rate changes will gradually decrease. Lesovoy advises not to rush into purchasing currency at inflated prices, emphasizing that the temporary appreciation of the dollar does not necessarily mean the beginning of a prolonged weakening of the hryvnia. Attempts to buy currency at any cost amid forecasts of further exchange rate growth may lead to purchasing dollars precisely at rate peaks. When making decisions on purchasing currency, according to him, one should primarily consider one's own financial needs and the real situation on the market. The material is prepared exclusively for informational purposes and is not financial or investment advice.