Ukraine's foreign exchange market in September 2026 may turn out to be noticeably more active than in the preceding summer months. This was stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine by Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank. In his assessment, several factors will simultaneously begin to affect the exchange rate of the national currency: seasonal growth in imports, rising fuel prices, logistical problems against the backdrop of military risks, and the acceleration of inflationary processes. At the same time, the basic principle of market operation — the National Bank's regime of "managed flexibility" — will remain unchanged.
Import demand and the structural trade deficit
The first and, according to Lesovoy, the most significant factor for September will be importers' demand. According to the data provided, from January to July 2026 Ukraine imported goods worth $58.1 billion, while exports amounted to only $24.1 billion. The negative balance of trade in goods reached approximately $34 billion. The proportion is telling: for every dollar of goods exports, there is about $2.4 of imports. In September, currency demand may rise further due to purchases of energy resources, fuel, and equipment ahead of the autumn-winter season, which will create additional pressure on the supply of currency.
The fuel market as a currency driver
The second factor the expert named was the situation in the domestic fuel market. From late June to early August 2026, A-95 gasoline rose in price by almost 9%, diesel fuel by approximately 22%, and auto gas by 7.4%. For the foreign exchange market, these figures are critical, since Ukraine is heavily dependent on imports of oil products. High purchase prices and the need to build seasonal stocks increase the currency requirements of traders and, as a result, the demand for dollars and euros on the interbank market.
Military risks and logistical costs
The third factor is military strikes and the associated logistical problems. Attacks on warehouses, distribution centers, gas stations, and transport and port infrastructure directly increase business costs. Enterprises have to change delivery routes, restore damaged equipment, create reserve stocks, and seek alternative logistical solutions. Maritime logistics is of particular importance in this context, as agricultural exports depend on it to a large extent. Any restrictions on exports via the Black Sea lead to a decrease in the inflow of foreign currency earnings and an increased role for the NBU in covering the deficit in currency supply.
Inflation dynamics and exchange rate expectations
The fourth factor is the dynamics of consumer prices. According to Lesovoy's assessment, if monthly inflation in August is around 1.3–1.5% and does not exceed 1% in September, then the annual inflation rate may approach 10.1–10.3%. At the same time, the expert emphasizes: the inflation indicator itself does not automatically determine the exchange rate. However, the strengthening of inflationary expectations among citizens and businesses is capable of increasing interest in currency as a tool for preserving savings, which further fuels demand for cash and non-cash dollars and euros.
Exchange rate forecast and the role of the NBU
In Taras Lesovoy's overall assessment, September 2026 will have more potential sources of pressure on the foreign exchange market than previous months, but none of them so far looks sufficient for a sharp change in the exchange rate trajectory. The National Bank, according to him, will continue to remain the main "arbiter" between currency supply and demand, compensating for excess demand with interventions. Under such conditions, the dollar rate in September may be within the range of 44.7–45.4 UAH, and the euro — in the range of 51.5–53 UAH. Exchange rate fluctuations may become more pronounced, but the regulator's main objective will remain ensuring a controlled and predictable situation in the foreign exchange market.
Note: this material is prepared exclusively for informational purposes and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments involve risk, including the possible total loss of capital. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended to consult a licensed financial advisor.
