According to the European Court of Auditors, the European Union is failing to deliver on its own plan to wean itself off Russian oil and gas. The auditors pointed out that the bloc's countries are not investing enough in diversifying supplies, renewable energy, and grid development, and called on the European Commission to more actively monitor the implementation of the program. In their words, precisely at the moment when Europe's energy security is once again under pressure due to the situation in the Middle East, the process of "decoupling" from Russian energy carriers is "running into difficulties."

Context: from 45% to 12% and seaborne oil

Following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU has steadily reduced imports of Russian energy carriers. The sanctions package has virtually halted seaborne supplies of Russian crude oil, and Russia's share of the bloc's gas imports, according to data cited in the report, has fallen from 45% to 12%. At the same time, the auditors emphasize that a significant part of this reduction was less the result of deliberate political measures than of favorable circumstances — mild weather and high energy prices, which in themselves reduced demand.

Winter risk: 67% versus 80%

One of the acute problems, in the auditors' view, has been the filling of gas storage ahead of winter. At present, the reservoirs are filled to about 67%, whereas at the same stage last year the figure was close to 80%. Analysts warn that such a gap could lead to sharp spikes in gas prices during the heating season. An additional risk factor is the full ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) scheduled for 1 January 2027, which will narrow the already limited supply channels.

Investment gap: 300 billion versus 54.3 billion euros

Initially, the European Commission estimated the investment need for a full weaning off Russian energy carriers at around 300 billion euros, to be provided from the EU budget. However, to date the bloc's countries have committed only 54.3 billion euros. The auditors note that such a gap may indicate either that the initial estimate of the need was overstated or incorrect, or that member states are unable to properly implement the planned measures. This, in effect, calls into question the very feasibility of the program within the stated deadlines.

Contradictory data

Here the positions of the two sides diverge markedly. The European Court of Auditors claims that the program is "stalling": storage is filled only to 67% versus 80% a year earlier, investments have covered less than a fifth of the initial estimate (54.3 billion out of 300 billion euros), and the reduced dependence on Russian gas is largely explained not by policy but by mild weather and expensive gas. The European Commission, by contrast, states that the EU's actions and financing have already accelerated the development of renewable energy and led to a sharp reduction in Russian gas imports, and promises to "take the auditors' recommendations into account." Thus, one side sees a systemic failure in winter preparedness and underfunding, while the other sees confirmed progress that merely needs fine-tuning. The divergent reading of the same figures (67% fill rate, 54.3 billion euros in commitments) makes the assessment of the energy system's actual state debatable.

Political backdrop and who else is resisting

As recently as last year, the EU publicly stated that it was gradually weaning itself off Russian fossil fuels, as, in particular, demanded by US President Donald Trump. At that time, the most noticeable resistance came from Hungary and Slovakia. However, as the auditors note, as of today it has turned out that these are far from the only countries for which it is difficult to give up Russian energy carriers. The European Commission's recommendation to more actively monitor the plan's implementation is, in effect, an acknowledgment that without external audit pressure the bloc's internal coordination is not working effectively enough.