Andrian Prokip, head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, stated that the controlled export of a portion of Ukrainian gas under the current balance is a normal and justified decision. According to him, domestic gas consumption has decreased, domestic production remained sufficient this year, and in the event of a deficit, Ukraine has the opportunity to purchase an additional resource using a separate financial reserve. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine.
Imports dropped 17.5 times during the injection period
Prokip noted that during the gas injection period—from the start of injection until the end of summer—Ukraine's import demand dropped sharply compared to last year. "If we take the injection period, until the end of summer, from the start of injection until the end of summer this year and compare it with last year, our imports dropped by about 17.5 times. Under various scenarios, we had enough gas," the expert emphasized. Thus, the domestic market in the summer and early autumn period was actually provided with its own resources without significant dependence on external supplies.
Pessimistic scenario covered by financial reserve
According to Prokip's assessment, the need for additional imports could arise primarily under a pessimistic scenario: a cold end to winter, new infrastructure shelling, and problems with gas withdrawal from underground storage facilities. For such a case, as the expert explained, Ukraine has a separate financial resource for purchasing gas. "We are essentially covering this scenario if a gas deficit arises," he stated, pointing to the existence of a safeguard mechanism in case of a balance deterioration.
Analogy with canned meat and the economic logic of export
Against the backdrop of excess resources in storage facilities, Prokip considers it inappropriate to keep all the gas inside the country when its price is significantly higher on the European market. The expert gave a vivid analogy: "Do we hold this gas like I held canned meat, which then—what to do with it? Or do we play it now and sell it, and all companies will make money." According to his logic, selling the excess resource at a higher price allows companies to generate income that can be channeled into infrastructure development and preparation for the next heating season.
Safeguards of the mechanism: exports can be stopped at any moment
An additional limitation of risks for the domestic market, according to Prokip, is the controlled export mechanism itself. If the gas balance situation deteriorates, supplies abroad can be promptly terminated. "Moreover, given that safeguards are provided, meaning at any moment it can be stopped if we have some expectation that something is starting to go wrong, it can be stopped. This is an absolutely normal step, in my opinion," the expert emphasized. Thus, the mechanism is not irreversible and complies with internal market needs.
Actual volumes: 54.5 million cubic meters in October
Earlier, the ExPro publication reported that in October, 29 private gas-producing companies had already used the controlled export mechanism. Through the "Ukrainian Energy Exchange," they sold 54.5 million cubic meters of gas for export. According to experts' assessments, such volumes are small compared to Ukraine's total consumption—less than consumption on a single peak winter day. This confirms that current exports do not pose a threat to the country's energy security and remain within limits that do not affect the internal balance.
