The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a warning that Europe is entering the winter heating season with natural gas reserves at their lowest level since 2013. According to the agency's assessment, this depletion poses a direct threat to regional energy security and is capable of exerting noticeable pressure on international gas markets at least until 2027. The IEA report is reinforced by data from several European and international publications documenting multi-year lows in underground storage fullness ahead of the cold weather.
Record-Low Storage Levels
According to the IEA report, as of the end of October, European natural gas storage facilities were filled to only 75% of their capacity. This figure not only falls significantly short of the minimum 80% target level established by the European Union, but is also a record low in over a decade. The volume of gas injected into storage this season is also roughly 4% lower than the five-year average. Concurrently, The Economist magazine estimated European gas storage fullness at approximately 72%, while data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed the EU-wide figure at about 71.3% by the end of September — in both cases representing record lows for this time of year.
Causes of the Accumulated Deficit
The IEA attributes the deficit to a combination of factors. First, the fallout from the US-Iran conflict damaged liquefied natural gas plants in the Persian Gulf region and curtailed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key LNG supply artery; against this backdrop, Qatar reportedly declared force majeure on some of its supplies. Second, European countries entered the storage-building cycle from a very low level established at the end of the spring heating season. Third, importer hesitation, as they awaited lower prices, led to delivery delays. Although supply volumes were increased in August, September, and October, the IEA considers these efforts insufficient to compensate for the accumulated deficit.
Germany as a Zone of Special Concern
In Germany, Europe's leading economy, reserves are on average only 61% full — significantly below the bloc's average of 75% and below the legally mandated benchmark of 70% by November 1. By comparison, storage levels in Germany and the Netherlands were roughly 60% full at the end of September, while the UK's reserve level stood at under 40%. Despite these alarming figures, German officials stated earlier this week that the country has prepared sufficient gas reserves to ensure energy security in the upcoming winter.
LNG Dependency and Market Risks
The shortage forces European countries to rely heavily on additional liquefied natural gas supplies to meet peak demand. The IEA emphasizes that the Old Continent will become extremely vulnerable if the winter turns out colder than usual or if technical issues and supply disruptions occur within the gas grid. The combination of these factors, according to the agency's assessment, is capable of maintaining pressure on global gas markets right through to 2027, making source diversification and accelerated storage injection a priority for Brussels and national regulators.
