The question of a possible new wave of mobilization in Russia has once again become the subject of sharp debates. Andrey Kartapolov, Head of the State Duma Defense Committee, categorically denied that the authorities have such plans. According to him, information about preparations for compulsory conscription has no basis and is the result of an "unlimited flight of fancy" by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Official Position: Voluntary Principle
In his statement, cited by RBC-Ukraine, Kartapolov emphasized that the only way to replenish the ranks of the Russian army now remains contract service. The deputy assured the public that the recruitment of volunteers who have signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense fully meets the needs of the armed forces.
The parliamentarian paid special attention to citizen motivation. According to him, activity in military commissariats directly depends on the actions of the Ukrainian army: "The more the Armed Forces of Ukraine strike at civilian objects, the more Russians will want to come to the military commissariats." Thus, Moscow is trying to shift the focus from compulsory measures to patriotic impulse caused by the reaction to attacks.
History of Predictions: From 2022 to the Present
The rhetoric of Russian officials denying mobilization evokes associations with the events of 2022 among experts and observers. Andrey Kartapolov himself is a participant in this history: just a day before the announcement of partial mobilization, on September 21, 2022, he publicly stated that it would not take place, calling citizens' concerns "unwarranted".
A similar picture was observed before the start of the full-scale invasion. Russian politicians denied preparations for war until the last moment, calling Western intelligence warnings "fabrications" and "panic". The official narrative stated that the accumulation of troops near the borders was necessary exclusively for exercises. However, on February 24, 2022, these assurances collapsed, and Russia began open aggression against Ukraine.
Zelenskyy's Forecasts and Loss Statistics
While Moscow denies mobilization plans, Kyiv warns of impending events. On July 26, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Vladimir Putin intends to carry out a new mobilization this autumn. According to the Ukrainian leader, this will happen after the State Duma elections scheduled for September 20.
Zelenskyy voiced alarming figures regarding the state of the Russian army. According to his data, since the beginning of 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense has recruited 221,000 contractors. However, this amount proved insufficient to compensate for losses: over the same period, they reached 225,500 people, of which 131,000 were killed. Against this backdrop, the President of Ukraine predicts that within the framework of a new wave, 300,000 to 500,000 people could be sent to the front.
Infrastructure Preparation and New Sources of Replenishment
Evidence of preparation for large-scale actions is also reflected in regulatory documents. It recently became known that the updated civil defense rules of the Rosgvardia (National Guard) for the first time contain provisions on protecting the population from threats during mobilization, martial law, and wartime. This indicates that law enforcement agencies are incorporating scenarios of mass conscription into their plans.
Furthermore, Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Vladimir Putin is preparing conditions for expanding mobilization within the country and intends to get new soldiers from North Korea. Thus, despite the categorical denials of Andrey Kartapolov and his colleagues, the situation on the front and in the Russian rear continues to remain tense, and the issue of human resources remains key for the Kremlin.
