Ukraine's state-owned company Naftogaz of Ukraine has developed 24 detailed scenarios for navigating the 2026/2027 autumn-winter period. The planning takes into account various factors, including the intensity of potential Russian attacks, temperature conditions during the cold months, and projected volumes of domestic gas production. For each developed option, company specialists have formulated a clear action algorithm and technical solutions.
International Cooperation and Financial Instruments
Sergiy Fedorenko, Chairman of the Board of Naftogaz of Ukraine, noted that the company is actively working with foreign partners in several key areas. These include the restoration of damaged energy infrastructure, strengthening the physical protection of generation and distribution facilities, and supplying critical equipment and specialized machinery.
Special attention is paid to financial instruments that allow for the advance contracting of additional natural gas volumes. Fedorenko cited cooperation with Norway as a successful example of such partnership, noting that the country previously provided significant grant assistance for purchasing energy resources through European Bank for Reconstruction and Development mechanisms.
Attack Statistics and Import Scales
Since the beginning of 2026, Russian forces have carried out over 400 targeted attacks on the production and infrastructure facilities of the Naftogaz group, which is twice the figure for the entire previous year. The main blow traditionally targets the company's gas production facilities. Due to a substantial reduction in domestic production, Ukraine was forced to significantly increase import supplies, which reached a five-year high of 6.47 billion cubic meters last year.
In addition to the gas sector, Ukrainian authorities are paying close attention to other elements of critical infrastructure. Specifically, the government is preparing backup power systems and pumping stations for stable water supply to the capital in case of new unfavorable scenarios, although authorities openly warn about the risks of partial comfort reduction.
Significance of Strategic Planning for Energy Security
The development of dozens of heating season scenarios reflects the unprecedented level of uncertainty facing Ukraine's energy sector. Having pre-calculated algorithms allows for a prompt response to any emergencies, whether a sharp cold snap or the consequences of shelling. The successful implementation of these plans directly depends on rhythmic financial and technical support from international donors, as the restoration and protection of the energy system require colossal resources.
