Price Caps Could Block Electricity Imports: Ukraine Risks Being Left Without a Winter Reserve

Ukraine's energy system is entering the winter period of 2026 under conditions that experts describe as critically vulnerable. Following a series of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in October, optimistic forecasts for surviving the heating season have effectively lost relevance, and current price regulations—price caps—pose an additional risk: even if physical capacities for importing electricity from Europe exist, the commercial feasibility of such supplies may be called into question. This was stated in a commentary to LB.ua, provided to RBC-Ukraine, by Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre.

Nuclear Generation: More Than Half of the Winter Balance on the Edge

According to the Razumkov Centre, the total capacity of Ukrainian nuclear power plants is about 7.8 GW, which exceeds half of the projected winter generation balance. NPPs remain the main pillar of the energy system when part of the thermal and hydro generating capacities are out of service or operating with restrictions. However, not everything is smooth here either: one of the power units at the Khmelnytskyi NPP is operating below full capacity due to turbine problems, reducing generation by approximately 250 MW. On the scale of the national system, this might seem like an insignificant amount, but under conditions of deficit, every megawatt becomes critically important.

October Strikes: From 15.5 GW to a Crisis 8 GW

Before the October attacks by Russian forces on energy infrastructure facilities, the optimistic scenario for getting through the winter assumed available generation capacity at the level of 15.5 GW. After the strikes, this figure, according to Razumkov Centre specialists, effectively ceased to be realistic. The crisis scenario involves a drop in available generation to 8 GW, which means the formation of a significant electricity deficit during peak winter hours. The gap between consumption and generation under such conditions can reach several gigawatts, and this is already the level at which the system cannot provide stable power supply to the population and critical infrastructure without external supplies.

Imports Up to 2.5 GW: Physical Capability Exists, Commercial Viability in Question

In conditions where domestic generation does not cover demand, Ukraine's import capabilities, estimated at up to 2.5 GW, acquire special importance. This is a volume capable of significantly compensating for the deficit if the energy systems of neighboring countries are ready both technically and economically for such supplies. However, as Volodymyr Omelchenko emphasizes, «the issue of import capabilities arises very seriously» in conjunction with the current price caps—the ceiling prices for electricity set by the regulator. If electricity costs in neighboring countries exceed the Ukrainian price «ceiling» in winter, it will be technically possible to bring in the resource, but commercially such an operation will lose its meaning: «no one will buy at a loss to themselves,» the expert explained.

Experts Agree: Without Revising the Price Ceiling, Imports May Not Happen

Earlier, a similar assessment was given by ExPro Electricity expert Daria Orlova, stating that this winter electricity imports from Europe could turn out to be very expensive due to high prices in neighboring markets. According to her, price caps will likely have to be reviewed so that imported resources can flow into Ukraine in the necessary volumes. Thus, two independent experts—from an analytical center and from a specialized energy company—come to the same conclusion: without adjusting price regulation, Ukraine risks finding itself in a situation where physical transmission lines and transformer capacity exist, but the economic motivation for suppliers does not.

What This Means for the Winter of 2026–2027

The combination of factors—the decline in available generation after the October attacks, the partial degradation of Khmelnytskyi NPP capacity, dependence on imports, and rigid price regulation—creates a scenario in which Ukraine may face a chronic electricity deficit during peak winter periods. The solution to the problem lies in two planes: on the one hand, the accelerated restoration or replacement of damaged generating capacities, and on the other hand, flexibility in pricing policy, allowing imported resources to be attracted without losses for suppliers. Until these two contours are synchronized, the country's winter energy balance remains under threat, and every day without adjusting the price caps increases the risk that the deficit will become systemic rather than episodic.