Current price caps on the Ukrainian electricity market could once again become a barrier to imports from the EU in the event of a winter capacity deficit. This was stated by Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre, issuing a warning ahead of the approaching heating season. According to him, artificially limited prices on the domestic market make the supply of more expensive European electricity commercially unviable, even if physical opportunities for imports across interstate borders remain in place.
The Barrier Mechanism: Why Price Caps Block Imports
Omelchenko explained that under the current price cap system, the Ukrainian market is unable to "absorb" electricity coming from Europe at a higher cost. As a result, despite the availability of free capacity on transit lines and the physical possibility of imports, the commercial sense of such supplies is lost. The expert pointed out that a similar situation arose last year when Ukraine experienced a significant electricity deficit, yet imports from the EU were not carried out in sufficient volume precisely because of artificial price barriers established by NEURC.
Transition to European Methodology
As a solution, Omelchenko proposed revising the existing price caps and eventually transitioning to the European methodology for determining them. "That is, we need to change the price caps, finally transition to the European methodology for determining price caps, because today such a situation arises for us and may also arise in winter, just like last year when we have a huge electricity deficit and we cannot receive it due to the artificial barriers created by NEURC with these price caps," he stated. In his estimation, without changing the methodology, Ukraine risks repeating the scenario of the previous winter period, when the energy system operated under conditions of acute deficit while potential import sources remained untapped.
Impact on Consumers: Industry vs. Households
Separately, Omelchenko emphasized that reviewing price caps does not mean an automatic increase in electricity tariffs for the population. "This is not about the household consumer. The price remains the same for the household consumer," the expert explained. According to him, it is primarily about the operating conditions of the wholesale market and the ability of industrial consumers to obtain the necessary volume of the resource during periods of peak demand. Thus, adjusting price restrictions is aimed at ensuring the stability of energy supplies for business and critical infrastructure, rather than changing the tariff burden on households.
Context: The January 2026 Adjustment and Its Effect
Recall that in January 2026, NEURC raised price caps on short-term electricity market segments. According to industry analysts, this step helped expand import cross-sections and increase import volumes from Europe during periods of deficit caused by damage to energy infrastructure resulting from Russian shelling. Nevertheless, as follows from Omelchenko's statement, the current level of restrictions still does not provide sufficient commercial incentive for imports during the winter peak demand.
Business Position and Systemic Risks
Earlier, the European Business Association (EBA) repeatedly appealed to NEURC with a call to establish economically justified price caps. The association noted that current price restrictions hinder not only commercial imports from the EU, but also the development of new balancing generation and the attraction of private investment into the energy sector. Energy market expert Volodymyr Halushchak, in turn, warned that lowering price caps could affect import volumes and create additional risks for the stability of the energy system during deficit periods. The combination of these signals indicates that the pricing methodology issue in the wholesale electricity market remains one of the key ones for Ukraine's preparation for the 2026–2027 winter energy season.
