As the energy system prepares for the winter season, Ukrainian expert Volodymyr Omelchenko stated that the current price caps on the electricity market are restraining imports and could exacerbate the deficit during the cold period. According to him, to maintain the commercial attractiveness of supplies from abroad, the price caps must be raised.

Why price caps block imports

Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre, explained that Ukrainian electricity prices are artificially limited, whereas electricity costs on EU markets can be higher. Under such conditions, imports to Ukraine lose their commercial sense: it is impractical for a supplier to sell energy at a price not permitted by the internal price cap. "We need to raise the price cap, I've been talking about this for so long, nobody wants to hear it," the expert noted.

Winter as the most vulnerable period

According to Omelchenko's assessment, the problem will become particularly acute in winter, when the need for additional electricity increases. If the level of price caps is not raised, imports will remain commercially unviable, which, according to the expert, will lead to an increase in the deficit precisely during the winter period.

Damaged grid as the second barrier

Even if electricity is available and there is a readiness to import it, the transmission capabilities to deficit regions are limited by damage to grid infrastructure, Omelchenko added. Energy cannot always be transmitted through damaged substations, which further narrows the actual import opportunities.

Current levels and business calls

To date, the maximum price cap on the day-ahead and intraday markets in Ukraine is UAH 15,000/MWh, and on the balancing market it is UAH 17,000/MWh. Earlier, the European Business Association repeatedly appealed to NEURC to review the approach to price caps and establish economically justified price limits on organized market segments.

Broader winter context

Omelchenko's statement comes against the backdrop of forecasts about a possible expansion of blackouts in winter. Energy expert Stanislav Ihnatiev previously estimated that with an average daily temperature of around -10 °C and no new significant shelling, blackouts could reach a total of six or more hours per day, most noticeably in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, and frontline regions. According to him, solar generation operates inefficiently in winter, which additionally limits the balancing capabilities of the energy system.