Ukraine has the capacity to import up to 2.5 GW of electricity, however the current approach to setting price caps — maximum prices on individual market segments — does not allow this resource to be fully utilized precisely during periods of deficit. This was stated by Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of Energy and Infrastructure Programs at the Razumkov Center, whose words are cited by RBC-Ukraine. In his assessment, maximum prices on the market should be formed according to European principles, rather than being set manually.
Import as an element of winter grid resilience
Omelchenko emphasized that import is one of the key elements of the power system's resilience in winter, alongside nuclear and distributed generation. The available 2.5 GW in capacity, the expert compared to almost two and a half nuclear power units. "Next comes the import of electricity, which is 2.5 gigawatts. That is also a considerable amount in terms of capacity, almost 2.5 nuclear units. But these import capacities need to be used better," he noted.
Manual mode of caps creates a deficit at the right hours
According to the expert, the government and the NKREKU need to change their approach to price caps — the maximum price at which electricity can be sold on individual market segments. When such a price "ceiling" is set manually and does not correspond to the market situation, Ukraine risks losing the opportunity to buy electricity from Europe precisely in those hours when its own generation is insufficient. "Because when price caps are regulated in manual mode, a deficit of import capacity is created at the time when we need it. And we absolutely do not need that, so this is also a very important issue," Omelchenko emphasized.
Chronology of the regulator's decisions: increase in January, rollback in March
Recall that the NKREKU raised price caps on the short-term market segments in January 2026. According to industry analysts, this step allowed expanding import crossings and increasing electricity imports from Europe during the deficit caused by damage to the energy infrastructure as a result of Russian shelling. However, the Regulator's January decision was temporary: in accordance with the NKREKU resolution, from March 31 the price caps were returned to their previous level.
Positions on the abolition of price caps and the unprofitability of generation
The head of the Verkhovna Rada committee on energy and public utilities, Andriy Herus, stated that the abolition of price caps from May 1, 2027 does not create a risk of uncontrolled price growth, since the law provides mechanisms for protecting the market and consumers. Earlier, the coordinator of the "Energy and Climate" sector of the Ukraine Facility Platform, Oleksandr Vyzir, noted that during a deficit, part of the available generation may be unprofitable to launch through price caps: if the production of one megawatt-hour costs more than the allowed sale price, the power plant effectively has to operate at a loss.
Contradictory data
In the public discussion, there are discrepancies in the assessment of effects and timelines. On the one hand, the increase in price caps in January 2026, according to analysts' estimates, did indeed expand import crossings and increased supplies from Europe during deficit hours. On the other hand, the rollback of the caps to their previous level from March 31, 2026, and the maintenance of the manual regulation mode, in the opinion of Omelchenko and Vyzir, again limit imports precisely when they are needed. Meanwhile, Herus's position on the safety of abolishing price caps from May 1, 2027, relies on legislative protection mechanisms, whereas experts point to the current losses from manual pricing. Thus, the parties disagree on how much the current regime already affects imports and exactly when a sustainable effect from the liberalization of price ceilings will be achieved.
