According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian leadership is preparing a new wave of mobilization that could encompass up to 600,000 people in total in 2026–2027. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing a post on the official website of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to intelligence data, a draft of mobilization measures has already been prepared in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, providing for the conscription of approximately 300,000 people in the current year and a further 300,000 in the following year.

Reasons: losses and the failure of contract recruitment plans

Ukrainian intelligence links the preparation of a new mobilization to two factors: significant losses in the Russian army and a decline in the pace of contract recruitment. From January to July 2026, the GUR estimates Russia's personnel losses at around 240,000, of which no fewer than 140,000 are irrecoverable. Over the same period, fewer than 232,000 people were recruited on a contract basis into the occupation contingent. Recruitment problems are recorded in several regions: in Kurgan Oblast, monthly plans have been met by only 57–69% since the start of the year, while in Volgograd Oblast the number of potential contract recruits has fallen by 40% compared with 2025.

Legislative changes and expansion of the recruitment base

In preparation for the mobilization, Russia is, according to intelligence, amending legislation and tightening control over military registration. The list of convicted persons who may be sent for military service is being expanded — including individuals with unexpunged or unsatisfied convictions under a number of serious articles of the Russian Criminal Code. The possibility of extending mobilization and contract service to certain categories of women serving sentences in Russian prisons and camps is being considered separately. Quotas for sending law enforcement officers to serve under mobilization are planned. Training of mobilized personnel may take from 15 to 60 days, and their training at training grounds in Belarus is not ruled out.

Pressure on potential servicemen

Russia is already using electronic mobilization orders and is now preparing to expand the range of restrictive measures. These include a ban on leaving the country, obtaining loans, conducting real estate transactions, the annulment of driver's licenses, and the freezing of funds in bank accounts. Enterprises are increasing the number of staff responsible for mobilization work and military registration: as of the end of July 2026, more than 2,500 job vacancies for such units had been posted on job-search websites. Intelligence also notes that new recruitment methods are being used to replenish units — in particular, students are being targeted with offers of service in units allegedly linked to unmanned aerial vehicles.

When the decision may be made

According to Ukrainian intelligence, it is most likely that the Russian leader will make the decision on a new mobilization after the "elections" to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, scheduled for 18–20 September 2026. Thus, if the plan is implemented, the units and military formations that will be reinforced first are those directly fighting against Ukraine, as well as units in the formation stage.

Contradictory data

All the figures and estimates cited are based on one-sided intelligence data from the GUR, published through the official channel of the President of Ukraine, and have not been confirmed by independent international sources or by the Russian side. Moreover, there is an internal inconsistency in the figures themselves that is important to take into account: the stated decline in the pace of contract recruitment is juxtaposed with the fact that fewer than 232,000 people were recruited on a contract basis from January to July 2026 — a figure close to the estimated losses of 240,000. This means that contract recruitment almost, but not fully, offsets the losses, which is not the same as the complete "collapse" of recruitment described in the intelligence assessment. Until the Russian side officially announces the mobilization, all the plans mentioned remain at the level of intelligence forecasts.