Against the backdrop of the approaching 2026 heating season, Ukraine's energy security is once again the subject of heated debate. Experts warn that one of the main threats to system stability is not only the physical state of the infrastructure but also economic regulators that effectively block access to European markets. The key issue requiring immediate resolution remains the price cap mechanism — maximum prices on the wholesale electricity market.

Economic Barrier to Import: Why Money Doesn't Work

Vladimir Omelchenko, an energy expert at the Razumkov Centre, highlighted a critical vulnerability in the current model in an interview with RBK-Ukraine. According to him, if price caps in Ukraine remain below market prices in Europe, Ukrainian energy companies physically cannot purchase the necessary volume of imported electricity, even if the technical capacity exists.

The mechanism works as follows: when the price per kilowatt-hour on the European market exceeds the "ceiling" set in Ukraine, automated trading systems block the transaction. This means that during peak consumption or shortages, when prices in the EU rise, Ukraine finds itself cut off from an external energy source, despite the availability of free capacity at the border.

History of Temporary Solutions and a Return to the Old Ways

The situation with prices in 2026 is cyclical. Recall that the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NKREKU) raised price caps on short-term market segments in January 2026. This step allowed for a temporary expansion of import flows and increased supplies from Europe during the period when Ukraine's energy infrastructure suffered damage from Russian shelling.

However, according to the regulator's resolution, as of March 31, 2026, these measures were cancelled, and prices were returned to the previous, lower level. Experts note that such a return to strict restrictions on the eve of winter creates risks of repeating crisis scenarios where the country cannot compensate for generation losses through imports.

Comprehensive Approach: From "Frozen Accounts" to Physical Protection

Omelchenko emphasizes that solving the energy security problem requires a comprehensive approach that goes beyond simply lifting restrictions. The expert highlighted several critical areas:

  • Development of distributed generation: It is necessary to accelerate the construction of small power plants and energy storage systems to reduce the load on main networks.
  • The "Heat Communal Energy" problem: It is urgent to resolve the issue of frozen accounts of heat energy enterprises, which cannot function normally and purchase fuel.
  • Physical protection: The priority remains strengthening the protection of key facilities, primarily Ukrenergo substations and TEP enterprises, from sabotage and attacks.

"Also, solve the problem of price caps on electricity so that we can import electricity in winter when it is needed," the expert summarized.

Contradictory Data

The question of abolishing price caps causes disputes between regulators and legislators regarding timelines and risks. On the one hand, experts (in particular, Andriyan Prokop from the Ukrainian Institute of Future) insist that current restrictions are directly limiting the possibility of imports during periods of high prices.

On the other hand, the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy and Utilities, Andriy Herus, states that the complete abolition of price caps is scheduled only for May 1, 2027. Herus claims that this transition period does not create a risk of uncontrolled price growth, as the law provides mechanisms to protect the market and consumers. Thus, there is a time gap between expert recommendations (urgent solution) and the legislators' plan (postponement until 2027).