The Ukrainian gas industry faces a complex challenge: ensuring the domestic market is fueled by the start of the heating season while simultaneously supporting domestic production. According to the latest expert assessments, the country has a real chance of reaching the government target of 14.6 billion cubic meters of gas in underground storage facilities. However, this scenario is possible only under strict control of exports and the successful restoration of infrastructure.
Export as a Tool, Not a Goal
Leonid Unigovsky, General Director of the Expert Council for the Development of the Gas Industry and Natural Gas Market, stated that the possibility of exporting up to 15% of produced gas should not be perceived as an unconditional opening of the market. In his words, the decision to sell gas abroad must be made exclusively based on factual data.
Key factors for making the decision will be:
- Current domestic gas balance;
- Actual volumes of reserves in storage facilities;
- State of gas transportation infrastructure;
- The industry's ability to recover quickly after shelling.
"Here, a special, professional analysis of existing threats and opportunities is needed. And even from the point of view of repair capabilities, of recovery after strikes," Unigovsky explained.
The Economics of Industry Survival
Limited exports are viewed by experts not just as a way to earn money, but as a necessary mechanism for financing the development of domestic production. Leonid Unigovsky emphasized that without constant investment in geological exploration and drilling of new wells, the gas extraction business risks losing its potential.
The difference between gas prices within Ukraine and on the European market creates an economic incentive to sell part of the production abroad. These funds can be directed towards exploration and production drilling, which is critical for the long-term existence of the industry.
"If all companies do not plan development, then this business will sooner or later end. Therefore, for development, exploration is needed, and there must be exploration drilling, and then production drilling," the expert noted.
Risks and Restoration
Despite optimistic forecasts for stockpiling reserves, the situation remains tense. The success of the winter preparation campaign depends directly on the consequences of Russian strikes on major production areas and the speed of restoring damaged facilities.
Unigovsky noted that the main danger is not so much the accumulation of gas, but guaranteeing its delivery to consumers and generating facilities in the event of new attacks on infrastructure. Earlier, Ksenia Orinchak, founder of the National Association of the Extractive Industry of Ukraine, also supported the idea of controlled exports, pointing out that permitted volumes should flexibly change depending on the season and the needs of the domestic market.
