In late October, Ukraine resumed regular attacks on Russian oil refineries, breaking a pause of approximately two weeks which was reportedly due to requests by U.S. President Donald Trump to refrain from striking energy infrastructure. Reuters, citing two industry sources, reports that in the past week, drone strikes have disrupted operations at nine of Russia’s 35 largest refineries, including plants in Ryazan, Yaroslavl, and the Volga region (Saratov, Kirishi). Sources estimate that these enterprises account for about one-third of Russia's total oil refining capacity.

Scale of affected capacity

The total nominal capacity of the plants struck since late October is about 300,000 tons of oil per day (approximately 2.2 million barrels per day), compared to a total nominal primary capacity of Russian refineries of about 930,000 tons per day. According to Reuters, by the end of October, actual processing was about 700,000 tons per day (approximately 5 million barrels per day), and the strikes could have further reduced processing volumes by 200,000 tons per day. There has been no official confirmation of these figures from Russian authorities.

Impact on domestic market and exports

Ukrainian strikes on refineries are exacerbating fuel shortages in the Russian domestic market. At the same time, Russia continues to supply diesel fuel abroad as part of an export agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump. Previously, Trump criticized Ukraine for strikes on refineries, arguing that Kyiv has other targets and that attacks on processing plants contribute to rising diesel prices in the global market. Against the backdrop of this combination — domestic processing constraints and export commitments — pressure on the fuel market is increasing, according to Reuters.

Fate of diesel tankers

According to the report, tankers carrying Russian diesel fuel that Russia sent to the U.S. likely failed to find a buyer. Last week, two ships — the Talisman and the Leruo — changed course, and on November 10, it became known that another ship sent to the U.S., the Agioi Fanendes, had turned back. These route changes, according to Reuters, indicate difficulties in offloading export fuel batches amid reduced refining within the country.