The introduction of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is turning into one of the most significant economic challenges for Ukraine over the coming decade. According to updated estimates by the GMK Center analytical center, presented at the meeting “CBAM and Industrial Decarbonization: Practical Issues and International Opportunities,” Ukraine's GDP losses from the carbon levy could reach approximately $372 million as early as 2026 and grow to $1.754 billion by 2030. Analysts describe the export losses as even more substantial: if in the current year, 2026, they are estimated at $1.431 billion, then by 2030 this figure is projected by GMK Center to reach $7.248 billion. In addition, by 2030 Ukraine risks losing approximately $1.348 billion in tax revenues and forfeiting potential investments worth over $1 billion.
Metallurgy at the Epicenter: Sector-by-Sector Risk Breakdown
GMK Center separately highlighted the risks for the metallurgical complex, which has traditionally been one of the country's key export sectors. By 2030, the industry's potential losses from CBAM could amount to approximately $1.6 billion. The hardest hit, according to forecasts, will be the rolled products segment — $899 million. Losses for steel semi-finished products are estimated at around $558 million, for pig iron — $96 million, and for pipes — $39 million. As industry experts emphasize, the core of the problem lies not so much in the carbon payment itself as in its systemic effect: rising production costs and declining competitiveness of Ukrainian products lead to the loss of export markets, capital outflows, and a shrinking tax base.
Searching for Solutions: Compensation Mechanisms and a Special Regime
Ksenia Orinchak, Executive Director of the National Association of Extractive Industry of Ukraine (NAEIU), speaking at the industry meeting, noted that the key issue today is agreeing on a special regime for Ukraine for the period of the war and post-war stabilization. Among the tools under discussion, she mentioned a mechanism under which funds paid by Ukrainian companies under CBAM would be directed directly toward production modernization — in particular, toward purchasing European equipment and technologies for decarbonization. A separate Ukrainian mechanism is also being considered: a voluntary carbon payment at the border, with subsequent reimbursement to producers to finance decarbonization projects. Without such a regime, according to Orinchak, CBAM risks becoming not only a decarbonization tool but also an additional factor in Ukraine's deindustrialization.
Context: How CBAM Came into Force in Ukraine and Why There Is No Exemption
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism came into force in Ukraine on January 1, 2026. It is a carbon levy on imports into the EU of goods such as steel, cement, fertilizers, electricity, aluminum, and hydrogen. Industry experts and analysts have repeatedly warned of the negative consequences of CBAM's implementation for the country's industry and economy as a whole. At the same time, as noted by NAEIU, the European Commission did not provide Ukraine with an exemption from the mechanism, even though the country formally has the right to one due to force majeure circumstances — a full-scale war. This is precisely why, according to Orinchak, the European Commission's position and the parties' readiness to agree on a special regime remain the central issue in the negotiations.
